2016 · SB

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

34·28

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

57

Model margin

+0.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.128EPA / play+0.196
  • 44.3%Success rate49.5%
  • +0.276EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.077EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.6%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +2.98CPOE+6.59
  • 47.3%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 2.47Points / drive2.93
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–0 since 1999

NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ATL @ NE23–24NE
2021 · W11NE @ ATL25–0NE
2017 · W7ATL @ NE7–23NE
2013 · W4NE @ ATL30–23NE
2009 · W3ATL @ NE10–26NE
2005 · W5NE @ ATL31–28NE
2001 · W8NE @ ATL24–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–ATL
NEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:37432Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:28941Punt0–0
ATLQ1 5:08524Punt0–0
NEQ1 1:36553Turnover0–0
ATLQ2 14:08571Touchdown0–7
NEQ2 12:1538Punt0–7
ATLQ2 10:37562Touchdown0–14
NEQ2 8:481537Opp touchdown0–21
NEQ2 2:211062Field goal3–21
ATLQ2 0:0200End of half3–21
ATLQ3 15:0034Punt3–21
NEQ3 13:073-2Punt3–21
ATLQ3 12:45982Touchdown3–28
NEQ3 8:311375Touchdown9–28
ATLQ3 2:0640Punt9–28
NEQ4 14:511172Field goal12–28
ATLQ4 9:443-2Turnover12–28
NEQ4 8:24525Touchdown20–28
ATLQ4 5:56755Punt20–28
NEQ4 3:301091Touchdown28–28
ATLQ4 0:57316Punt28–28
NEQ4 0:03113End of half28–28
NEOT962Touchdown34–28

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady43/6246621
Julian Edelman0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount11312.80
James White6294.82
Dion Lewis6274.50
Tom Brady11515.00
Julian Edelman122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White14161101
Julian Edelman513870
Danny Amendola811781
Malcolm Mitchell67700
Martellus Bennett56620
Chris Hogan47570
Dion Lewis1320

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan17/2328420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman11756.81
Tevin Coleman7294.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones44870
Taylor Gabriel35760
Devonta Freeman22460
Austin Hooper36321
Mohamed Sanu22250
Patrick DiMarco22120
Tevin Coleman1161

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.83