Closing spread
NE -3
Total
57
Model margin
+0.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.128EPA / play+0.196
- 44.3%Success rate49.5%
- +0.276EPA / dropback+0.323
- -0.077EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.6%Explosive rate11.2%
- +2.98CPOE+6.59
- 47.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 2.47Points / drive2.93
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–0 since 1999
NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 43/62 | 466 | 2 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| James White | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 14 | 16 | 110 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 13 | 87 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 11 | 78 | 1 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/23 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 75 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 4 | 4 | 87 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83