2017 · Week 7

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

7·23

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

56.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.137
  • 45.0%Success rate49.2%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback+0.254
  • -0.152EPA / rush-0.042
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +2.96CPOE+3.49
  • 44.1%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.52
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–0 since 1999

NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. NE are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ATL @ NE23–24NE
2021 · W11NE @ ATL25–0NE
2016 · playoffsNE @ ATL34–28NE
2013 · W4NE @ ATL30–23NE
2009 · W3ATL @ NE10–26NE
2005 · W5NE @ ATL31–28NE
2001 · W8NE @ ATL24–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NE
NEQ1 15:001127Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:5438Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:35411Punt0–0
ATLQ1 7:151152Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 1:05864Touchdown0–7
ATLQ2 12:2636Punt0–7
NEQ2 11:191369Field goal0–10
ATLQ2 4:42728Turnover on downs0–10
NEQ2 1:55848Touchdown0–17
ATLQ2 0:21336End of half0–17
ATLQ3 15:00955Missed field goal0–17
NEQ3 10:351276Field goal0–20
ATLQ3 4:121070Turnover on downs0–20
NEQ4 14:321079Field goal0–23
ATLQ4 9:151188Touchdown7–23
NEQ4 4:09532End of half7–23

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/3323310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12726.00
Matt Ryan33712.30
Tevin Coleman6162.70
Taylor Gabriel1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones913991
Mohamed Sanu610650
Taylor Gabriel22240
Justin Hardy22210
Devonta Freeman33180
Austin Hooper1160
Andre Roberts0100
Tevin Coleman0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/2924920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis13765.80
Rex Burkhead6315.20
Mike Gillislee8313.90
James White4194.80
Tom Brady551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Hogan46710
Brandin Cooks45651
Rob Gronkowski37510
James White55281
Danny Amendola34170
Rex Burkhead11110
Dion Lewis1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.61