Closing spread
NE -3
Total
56.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.137
- 45.0%Success rate49.2%
- +0.185EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.152EPA / rush-0.042
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.96CPOE+3.49
- 44.1%Third-down rate40.8%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 2.02Points / drive2.52
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–0 since 1999
NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. NE are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/33 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 13 | 99 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/29 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 13 | 76 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.61