2013 · Week 4

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

30·23

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

49

Model margin

-0.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.007
  • 46.7%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.137
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -1.37CPOE+2.86
  • 37.9%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.70
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–0 since 1999

NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ATL @ NE23–24NE
2021 · W11NE @ ATL25–0NE
2017 · W7ATL @ NE7–23NE
2016 · playoffsNE @ ATL34–28NE
2009 · W3ATL @ NE10–26NE
2005 · W5NE @ ATL31–28NE
2001 · W8NE @ ATL24–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001275Field goal0–3
NEQ1 9:23624Punt0–3
ATLQ1 6:15510Punt0–3
NEQ1 3:481275Touchdown7–3
ATLQ2 12:431352Turnover on downs7–3
NEQ2 6:19662Field goal10–3
ATLQ2 3:22880Touchdown10–10
NEQ2 0:3800End of half10–10
NEQ3 15:0040Punt10–10
ATLQ3 12:57416Punt10–10
NEQ3 11:391394Field goal13–10
ATLQ3 5:24727Punt13–10
NEQ3 1:53774Touchdown20–10
ATLQ4 14:26615Field goal20–13
NEQ4 11:52580Touchdown27–13
ATLQ4 9:4310Turnover27–13
NEQ4 9:35633Field goal30–13
ATLQ4 6:18890Touchdown30–20
NEQ4 4:2200Field goal30–20
ATLQ4 4:21740Field goal30–23
NEQ4 2:5549Turnover on downs30–23
ATLQ4 1:50552Turnover on downs30–23
NEQ4 0:3500End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3131620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount9647.11
Stevan Ridley11534.80
Brandon Bolden6172.80
Tom Brady5-2-0.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenbrell Thompkins6111271
Julian Edelman791180
Stevan Ridley22260
Josh Boyce13240
Aaron Dobson13100
Matthew Mulligan1111
Brandon Bolden11-50

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan34/5442121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers7324.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez12141492
Julio Jones6131080
Harry Douglas56680
Jacquizz Rodgers66560
Roddy White39280
Levine Toilolo1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.22