Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
49
Model margin
-0.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.007
- 46.7%Success rate44.7%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.137
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- -1.37CPOE+2.86
- 37.9%Third-down rate42.4%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.05Points / drive1.70
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–0 since 1999
NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/31 | 316 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 6 | 11 | 127 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 9 | 118 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Boyce | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 34/54 | 421 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 12 | 14 | 149 | 2 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 13 | 108 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.22