2025 · Week 9

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix

23·24

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -5.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.154
  • 44.5%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.308
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.089
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -3.36CPOE+10.94
  • 33.5%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.47
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–0 since 1999

NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. NE are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W11NE @ ATL25–0NE
2017 · W7ATL @ NE7–23NE
2016 · playoffsNE @ ATL34–28NE
2013 · W4NE @ ATL30–23NE
2009 · W3ATL @ NE10–26NE
2005 · W5NE @ ATL31–28NE
2001 · W8NE @ ATL24–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NE
ATLQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:191075Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 7:44517Punt0–7
NEQ1 4:4735Punt0–7
ATLQ1 3:19553Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 0:241265Touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 8:5233Punt7–14
NEQ2 7:45572Touchdown7–21
ATLQ2 5:11853Turnover on downs7–21
NEQ2 1:1754Turnover7–21
ATLQ2 0:2326Touchdown14–21
NEQ2 0:1200End of half14–21
NEQ3 15:001456Field goal14–24
ATLQ3 6:2634Punt14–24
NEQ3 5:2320Turnover14–24
ATLQ3 4:37836Field goal17–24
NEQ4 14:08831Punt17–24
ATLQ4 9:411380Touchdown23–24
NEQ4 4:4034Punt23–24
ATLQ4 3:30638Punt23–24
NEQ4 1:53322End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.22/3722130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson12463.80
Michael Penix Jr.2199.50
Tyler Allgeier263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London9141183
Bijan Robinson810500
Kyle Pitts47380
Darnell Mooney12150
David Sills0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye19/2925921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson14553.90
Terrell Jennings11353.21
Drake Maye8202.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas461001
Hunter Henry46510
Stefon Diggs34381
TreVeyon Henderson46320
Austin Hooper11200
Mack Hollins2290
Terrell Jennings1190
Kayshon Boutte0100
Kyle Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.45