Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.154
- 44.5%Success rate48.2%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.5%
- -3.36CPOE+10.94
- 33.5%Third-down rate43.3%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.82Points / drive2.47
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–0 since 1999
NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. NE are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 22/37 | 221 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 9 | 14 | 118 | 3 |
| Bijan Robinson | 8 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| David Sills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/29 | 259 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 6 | 100 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.45