2001 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

21·7

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 94°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

4.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCardinals
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.028
  • 39.2%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.182
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 31.5%Third-down rate28.9%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.12
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.115EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ARI
PHIQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 14:4331Punt7–0
PHIQ1 12:40514Punt7–0
ARIQ1 9:4935Punt7–0
PHIQ1 8:41546Punt7–0
ARIQ1 6:27930Punt7–0
PHIQ1 0:4537Punt7–0
ARIQ2 14:52420Punt7–0
PHIQ2 12:25662Punt7–0
ARIQ2 9:1845Punt7–0
PHIQ2 6:48735Touchdown14–0
ARIQ2 2:44580Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 1:05369Touchdown21–7
ARIQ2 0:3332Punt21–7
PHIQ2 0:0210Turnover21–7
ARIQ3 15:00829Punt21–7
PHIQ3 10:0730Punt21–7
ARIQ3 9:3438Punt21–7
PHIQ3 8:10610Punt21–7
ARIQ3 4:1030Punt21–7
PHIQ3 2:50735Punt21–7
ARIQ4 14:52943Punt21–7
PHIQ4 11:3633Punt21–7
ARIQ4 10:41627Turnover on downs21–7
PHIQ4 9:54739Punt21–7
ARIQ4 6:121077Turnover21–7
PHIQ4 2:55513Punt21–7
ARIQ4 0:2410Turnover21–7
PHIQ4 0:161-1End of half21–7

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/3323821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley12494.10
Donovan McNabb4266.50
James Thrash22412.00
Correll Buckhalter4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Thrash46802
Freddie Mitchell45620
Chad Lewis46570
Cecil Martin22160
Todd Pinkston38150
Jeff Thomason1190
Jamie Reader0200
Correll Buckhalter12-10

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer24/4129311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman18432.40
Thomas Jones6142.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston8131380
Frank Sanders612870
Michael Pittman56280
MarTay Jenkins25260
Tywan Mitchell35141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.96