Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.028
- 39.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.182
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 31.5%Third-down rate28.9%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
- 1.34Points / drive1.12
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. ARI are 11-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/33 | 238 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 4 | 6 | 80 | 2 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamie Reader | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 24/41 | 293 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 8 | 13 | 138 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 6 | 12 | 87 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 3 | 5 | 14 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96