2001 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

14·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Tony Banks

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

37

Model margin

+3.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCommanders
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.103
  • 38.9%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.18
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
  • +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.069

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–WAS
WASQ1 15:00971Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 10:26680Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 7:02418Punt7–7
SEAQ1 4:2021Turnover7–7
WASQ1 3:58415Field goal7–10
SEAQ1 1:5220Turnover7–10
WASQ1 1:32423Field goal7–13
SEAQ2 14:5134Punt7–13
WASQ2 13:191369Touchdown7–20
SEAQ2 5:291180Turnover7–20
WASQ2 0:54220End of half7–20
SEAQ3 15:0032Punt7–20
WASQ3 13:291174Touchdown7–27
SEAQ3 7:56618Punt7–27
WASQ3 4:363-4Punt7–27
SEAQ3 2:46238Touchdown14–27
WASQ3 2:09421Punt14–27
SEAQ4 14:17829Turnover on downs14–27
WASQ4 10:53733Turnover14–27
SEAQ4 6:24414Punt14–27
WASQ4 5:14713Punt14–27
SEAQ4 2:3029Turnover14–27
WASQ4 2:03412End of half14–27

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck6/1212702
Trent Dilfer8/1812111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander13604.61
Matt Hasselbeck100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Williams23690
Bobby Engram23530
Darrell Jackson18461
Shaun Alexander45420
Christian Fauria23250
Alex Bannister11130
Itula Mili0100
Koren Robinson0300
Trent Dilfer11-50

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks15/2315221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis321424.41
Ki-Jana Carter10575.70
Tony Banks4276.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stephen Davis22220
Walter Rasby22221
Michael Westbrook23181
Rod Gardner15180
Kevin Lockett23160
Ki-Jana Carter22110
Zeron Flemister2270
Derrius Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.42