2001 · Week 8
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.103
- 38.9%Success rate38.9%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate34.9%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.20Points / drive1.18
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. WAS are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6/12 | 127 | 0 | 2 |
| Trent Dilfer | 8/18 | 121 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Williams | 2 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 1 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Alex Bannister | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 15/23 | 152 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 32 | 142 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.42