2014 · Week 5

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

27·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCommanders
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.052
  • 44.0%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback-0.031
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.089
  • 11.7%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +4.40CPOE+1.13
  • 43.4%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.39
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–WAS
SEAQ1 15:00665Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 12:44915Punt7–0
SEAQ1 8:09740Punt7–0
WASQ1 4:2731Punt7–0
SEAQ1 2:56416Punt7–0
WASQ2 14:5134Punt7–0
SEAQ2 13:53951Field goal10–0
WASQ2 9:0437Punt10–0
SEAQ2 7:21570Touchdown17–0
WASQ2 4:37480Touchdown17–7
SEAQ2 2:323-1Punt17–7
WASQ2 1:44411Punt17–7
SEAQ2 0:46426End of half17–7
WASQ3 15:00766Field goal17–10
SEAQ3 10:4138Punt17–10
WASQ3 8:2938Punt17–10
SEAQ3 6:40415Punt17–10
WASQ3 4:31418Punt17–10
SEAQ3 2:0035Punt17–10
WASQ3 0:2234Punt17–10
SEAQ4 14:041468Touchdown24–10
WASQ4 6:311175Touchdown24–17
SEAQ4 3:35740Field goal27–17
WASQ4 0:21118End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/2420120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson1112211.11
Marshawn Lynch17724.20
Robert Turbin5193.80
Percy Harvin273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin45500
Marshawn Lynch56451
Cooper Helfet12360
Luke Willson34280
Percy Harvin45270
Jermaine Kearse12151

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3628320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris13292.20
Kirk Cousins242.00
Roy Helu2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson5111571
Roy Helu57590
Andre Roberts59291
Pierre Garcon23230
Logan Paulsen23110
Niles Paul1260
Alfred Morris11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

4.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.27
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin-0.55