2014 · Week 5
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.052
- 44.0%Success rate41.7%
- +0.141EPA / dropback-0.031
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.089
- 11.7%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.40CPOE+1.13
- 43.4%Third-down rate31.3%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.06Points / drive1.39
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. WAS are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/24 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 11 | 122 | 11.1 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Cooper Helfet | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/36 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 11 | 157 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 9 | 29 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.27
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin-0.55