Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play+0.073
- 38.8%Success rate43.5%
- +0.196EPA / dropback+0.160
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.2%Explosive rate4.3%
- +2.36CPOE-3.44
- 18.2%Third-down rate33.3%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.29Points / drive1.99
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. WAS are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.52