2026 · Week 3

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Drew Lock

31·33

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

SEA -8.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-3.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCommanders
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.008
  • 42.4%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.225EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +1.94CPOE+3.27
  • 38.2%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 58.1%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.86
  • 2.8%Turnover rate0.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–WAS
SEAQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:2836Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:0611Turnover0–0
WASQ1 11:00421Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 9:0838Punt0–7
WASQ1 7:29917Punt0–7
SEAQ1 3:251088Touchdown7–7
WASQ2 13:2734Punt7–7
SEAQ2 11:1936Punt7–7
WASQ2 10:21860Touchdown7–14
SEAQ2 6:471278Turnover on downs7–14
WASQ2 1:4030Punt7–14
SEAQ2 1:1337Field goal10–14
WASQ2 0:52426Field goal10–17
WASQ3 15:0038Punt10–17
SEAQ3 13:24314Turnover10–17
WASQ3 12:02343Touchdown10–24
SEAQ3 10:43855Touchdown17–24
WASQ3 6:0535Punt17–24
SEAQ3 5:0431Punt17–24
WASQ3 4:15611Punt17–24
SEAQ3 1:12869Touchdown24–24
WASQ4 11:531227Field goal24–27
SEAQ4 4:34426Opp touchdown24–33
SEAQ4 3:57568Touchdown31–33
WASQ4 2:51632End of half31–33

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold31/4537942
Jaxon Smith-Njigba1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jadarian Price5153.00
Emanuel Wilson9141.60
George Holani3103.30
Sam Darnold155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba10141282
AJ Barner59690
George Holani55480
Tory Horton33480
Cooper Kupp45461
Brady Russell11200
Rashid Shaheed23140
Eric Saubert12131
Jadarian Price1370

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota19/3118330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt19361.90
Rachaad White8354.40
Marcus Mariota5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin69771
Stefon Diggs47330
Jaylin Lane11210
Antonio Williams24150
Treylon Burks22131
John Bates1190
Jacory Croskey-Merritt1170
Rachaad White1161
Colson Yankoff1220
Dyami Brown0100
Ben Sinnott0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.64