2020 · Week 15

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

20·15

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCommanders
  • +0.105EPA / play-0.051
  • 48.8%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.063
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.030
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +6.78CPOE-1.32
  • 39.6%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 72.6%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.76
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–WAS
WASQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:50840Field goal3–0
WASQ1 8:5049Punt3–0
SEAQ1 6:08521Punt3–0
WASQ1 3:16824Punt3–0
SEAQ1 0:131137Field goal6–0
WASQ2 10:52848Turnover6–0
SEAQ2 6:501180Touchdown13–0
WASQ2 1:451046Field goal13–3
SEAQ2 0:0600End of half13–3
SEAQ3 15:00475Touchdown20–3
WASQ3 13:12439Turnover20–3
SEAQ3 10:5839Punt20–3
WASQ3 8:5037Punt20–3
SEAQ3 6:5434Punt20–3
WASQ3 5:041481Touchdown20–9
SEAQ4 14:14636Turnover20–9
WASQ4 11:131164Touchdown20–15
SEAQ4 7:1633Punt20–15
WASQ4 5:341434Turnover on downs20–15
SEAQ4 0:5100End of half20–15

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/2712111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson15634.20
Carlos Hyde25527.51
Russell Wilson6528.70
Rashaad Penny263.00
David Moore155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf56430
Tyler Lockett47340
Jacob Hollister22171
David Moore24100
Carlos Hyde2380
Chris Carson2360
Freddie Swain1130

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins38/5529512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.D. McKissic13513.90
Dwayne Haskins3289.30
Peyton Barber451.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Thomas13161010
Terry McLaurin712770
J.D. McKissic910561
Cam Sims58260
Isaiah Wright22150
Steven Sims12110
Robert Foster1290
Peyton Barber0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

39.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.83