2020 · Week 15
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play-0.051
- 48.8%Success rate42.1%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.030
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- +6.78CPOE-1.32
- 39.6%Third-down rate40.2%
- 72.6%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.52Points / drive1.76
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. WAS are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/27 | 121 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 55 | 27.5 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| David Moore | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 38/55 | 295 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 13 | 16 | 101 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 12 | 77 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 9 | 10 | 56 | 1 |
| Cam Sims | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
39.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.83