2017 · Week 9

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

17·14

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SEA -8

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.023
  • 40.8%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.192
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.00CPOE+4.52
  • 32.5%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.68
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. SEA are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–SEA
WASQ1 15:0068Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:0548Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:05424Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 8:2133Punt0–2
WASQ1 6:521-6Safety0–2
SEAQ1 6:48643Missed field goal0–2
WASQ1 3:453-6Punt0–2
SEAQ1 1:54311Turnover0–2
WASQ1 0:2631Punt0–2
SEAQ2 14:431243Missed field goal0–2
WASQ2 9:371467Touchdown7–2
SEAQ2 2:52423Punt7–2
WASQ2 1:233-1Punt7–2
SEAQ2 0:45641Missed field goal7–2
SEAQ3 15:0037Punt7–2
WASQ3 13:26643Field goal10–2
SEAQ3 10:19831Turnover10–2
WASQ3 5:4732Punt10–2
SEAQ3 5:051052Punt10–2
WASQ3 1:1135Punt10–2
SEAQ4 14:42666Touchdown10–8
WASQ4 11:483-18Punt10–8
SEAQ4 10:0339Punt10–8
WASQ4 7:451055Punt10–8
SEAQ4 2:22571Touchdown10–14
WASQ4 1:34470Touchdown17–14
SEAQ4 0:59729End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3124700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Thompson4205.00
Rob Kelley14181.32
Samaje Perine294.50
Kirk Cousins341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis69720
Josh Doctson35590
Brian Quick33490
Ryan Grant33390
Terrelle Pryor23170
Chris Thompson46110
Jeremy Sprinkle0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/4529722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson10777.70
Thomas Rawls9394.30
Eddie Lacy6203.30
J.D. McKissic3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin7121081
Jimmy Graham58590
Paul Richardson33410
Thomas Rawls22310
Eddie Lacy11140
J.D. McKissic23140
Luke Willson12101
Tyler Lockett28100
Tanner McEvoy12100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.14