2017 · Week 9
Final
CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
SEA -8
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.023
- 40.8%Success rate41.3%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.00CPOE+4.52
- 32.5%Third-down rate37.4%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.61Points / drive1.68
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. SEA are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/31 | 247 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 14 | 18 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/45 | 297 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 77 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 12 | 108 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.14