2025 · Week 9
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.035
- 46.6%Success rate46.4%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.039
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- +4.54CPOE+0.67
- 40.9%Third-down rate37.2%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.22Points / drive2.03
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. WAS are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 21/24 | 330 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| George Holani | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 9 | 129 | 0 |
| Cody White | 1 | 2 | 60 | 1 |
| Tory Horton | 4 | 4 | 48 | 2 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 16/22 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| John Bates | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.33
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-3.03