2025 · Week 9

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

38·14

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-3.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCommanders
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.035
  • 46.6%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.039
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +4.54CPOE+0.67
  • 40.9%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.22Points / drive2.03
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–WAS
WASQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:1114104Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 3:041135Turnover7–0
SEAQ2 12:49760Touchdown14–0
WASQ2 8:5200Touchdown20–0
SEAQ2 8:46126Touchdown21–0
WASQ2 8:4139Punt21–0
SEAQ2 6:44487Touchdown28–0
WASQ2 4:341069Touchdown28–7
SEAQ2 0:53353Field goal31–7
SEAQ3 15:0039Punt31–7
WASQ3 13:19527Punt31–7
SEAQ3 10:5046Turnover31–7
WASQ3 9:11719Turnover on downs31–7
SEAQ3 5:41956Touchdown38–7
WASQ3 1:53415Punt38–7
SEAQ4 14:5438Punt38–7
WASQ4 12:301150Touchdown38–14
SEAQ4 7:1439Punt38–14
WASQ4 4:40739End of half38–14

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold21/2433041

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III11423.80
Zach Charbonnet8253.10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba11111.00
George Holani393.00
AJ Barner111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba891290
Cody White12601
Tory Horton44482
Elijah Arroyo22291
AJ Barner34240
Zach Charbonnet11210
Kenneth Walker III22190

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels16/2215301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.12655.41
Jayden Daniels10515.11
Jacory Croskey-Merritt12383.20
Deebo Samuel Sr.133.00
Jeremy McNichols100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz44460
Deebo Samuel Sr.56410
Jaylin Lane35290
John Bates24200
Treylon Burks11140
Jacory Croskey-Merritt1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.0%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.33
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-3.03