2021 · Week 12
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
47
Model margin
-0.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.036
- 43.8%Success rate44.8%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.018
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.062
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.08CPOE-0.08
- 37.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 2.12Points / drive1.78
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. WAS are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/31 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 5 | 96 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 27/35 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 29 | 111 | 3.8 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 1 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.80