2021 · Week 12

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

15·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

47

Model margin

-0.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCommanders
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.036
  • 43.8%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.018
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.062
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.08CPOE-0.08
  • 37.3%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.78
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–WAS
WASQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:5931Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:241468Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 2:59675Touchdown7–3
WASQ1 0:2066Punt7–3
SEAQ2 13:22422Punt7–3
WASQ2 10:431045Turnover7–3
SEAQ2 4:40252Turnover7–3
WASQ2 3:521154Touchdown9–9
SEAQ2 0:5639Punt9–9
WASQ2 0:1600End of half9–9
SEAQ3 15:0035Punt9–9
WASQ3 13:261173Touchdown9–17
SEAQ3 8:3037Punt9–17
WASQ3 6:54314Punt9–17
SEAQ3 4:5836Punt9–17
WASQ3 4:1039Punt9–17
SEAQ3 2:033-3Punt9–17
WASQ4 14:5049Punt9–17
SEAQ4 12:40516Punt9–17
WASQ4 10:561689Turnover on downs9–17
SEAQ4 2:191177Touchdown15–17
WASQ4 0:1500End of half15–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3124720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson2168.00
Alex Collins7142.00
DeeJay Dallas341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett35960
Gerald Everett59371
Freddie Swain12321
DeeJay Dallas55270
Will Dissly22190
Alex Collins11130
DK Metcalf14130
Dee Eskridge23100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke27/3522311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson291113.80
J.D. McKissic7304.31
DeAndre Carter144.00
Curtis Samuel144.00
Taylor Heinicke430.80
Jaret Patterson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin47510
DeAndre Carter45420
Antonio Gibson77350
Logan Thomas36310
J.D. McKissic55261
John Bates11150
Adam Humphries22140
Curtis Samuel1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.80