2012 · WC
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.137
- 45.2%Success rate46.7%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.233
- -0.005EPA / rush+0.030
- 11.2%Explosive rate12.8%
- +5.50CPOE+4.84
- 39.8%Third-down rate35.5%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 2.17Points / drive2.11
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. WAS are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/26 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 132 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 67 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 10/19 | 84 | 2 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3/10 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.55