2012 · WC

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

24·14

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCommanders
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.137
  • 45.2%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.233
  • -0.005EPA / rush+0.030
  • 11.2%Explosive rate12.8%
  • +5.50CPOE+4.84
  • 39.8%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 2.17Points / drive2.11
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–WAS
WASQ1 15:00980Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 9:573-2Punt0–7
WASQ1 8:241149Touchdown0–14
SEAQ1 2:261171Field goal3–14
WASQ2 12:0548Punt3–14
SEAQ2 9:46949Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 4:3823Turnover10–14
SEAQ2 3:36963Field goal13–14
SEAQ3 15:00868Turnover13–14
WASQ3 10:26823Punt13–14
SEAQ3 5:31728Punt13–14
WASQ3 1:2434Punt13–14
SEAQ3 0:0433Punt13–14
WASQ4 13:18517Punt13–14
SEAQ4 10:53879Touchdown21–14
WASQ4 7:082-12Turnover21–14
SEAQ4 6:1931Field goal24–14
WASQ4 5:32727Turnover on downs24–14
SEAQ4 4:16821Turnover on downs24–14
WASQ4 1:0844Turnover on downs24–14
SEAQ4 0:3500End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2618710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch201326.61
Russell Wilson8678.40
Robert Turbin8222.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller46480
Doug Baldwin25390
Golden Tate45350
Sidney Rice14270
Marshawn Lynch1190
Robert Turbin1160
Anthony McCoy0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III10/198421
Kirk Cousins3/103100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris16805.00
Robert Griffin III5214.20
Kirk Cousins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon46500
Leonard Hankerson25270
Santana Moss35190
Logan Paulsen24151
Evan Royster1141
Josh Morgan1700

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.55