2023 · Week 10

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

26·29

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -6

Total

44

Model margin

+3.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.084EPA / play+0.032
  • 41.9%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.32CPOE+1.54
  • 35.6%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
  • 1.53Points / drive2.00
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. SEA are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–SEA
WASQ1 15:00465Touchdown6–0
SEAQ1 13:261049Field goal6–3
WASQ1 8:43517Punt6–3
SEAQ1 5:36618Punt6–3
WASQ1 2:21941Field goal9–3
SEAQ2 12:06951Field goal9–6
WASQ2 9:123-4Punt9–6
SEAQ2 7:2635Punt9–6
WASQ2 6:1837Punt9–6
SEAQ2 4:49959Field goal9–9
WASQ2 1:4737Punt9–9
SEAQ2 0:54743End of half9–9
SEAQ3 15:0036Punt9–9
WASQ3 12:56541Field goal12–9
SEAQ3 10:32275Touchdown12–16
WASQ3 9:43220Turnover12–16
SEAQ3 8:56413Punt12–16
WASQ3 7:10918Punt12–16
SEAQ3 2:011055Field goal12–19
WASQ4 12:14873Touchdown19–19
SEAQ4 8:001165Touchdown19–26
WASQ4 3:471071Touchdown26–26
SEAQ4 0:52550Field goal26–29

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell29/4431230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson8384.80
Sam Howell2178.50
Antonio Gibson4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Robinson661191
Antonio Gibson56421
Dyami Brown22411
Logan Thomas55400
Terry McLaurin48330
John Bates33210
Byron Pringle1270
Curtis Samuel2660
Alex Armah1130
Jamison Crowder0100
Jahan Dotson0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith31/4736920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III19633.30
Zach Charbonnet6447.30
Geno Smith11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf712980
Tyler Lockett810921
Kenneth Walker III12641
Jaxon Smith-Njigba45530
Will Dissly22220
Zach Charbonnet45180
Jake Bobo22130
Noah Fant2360
Colby Parkinson1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.91