2023 · Week 10
Final
Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
44
Model margin
+3.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.032
- 41.9%Success rate44.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.32CPOE+1.54
- 35.6%Third-down rate36.3%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
- 1.53Points / drive2.00
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. SEA are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 29/44 | 312 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 6 | 6 | 119 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| John Bates | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 31/47 | 369 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 12 | 98 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 2 | 64 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.91