2001 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

20·21

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -5

Total

37

Model margin

+4.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPackers
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.054
  • 39.6%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.149
  • 6.6%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 35.3%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 42.8%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.76
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. GB are 7-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–GB
TBQ1 15:003-12Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:04757Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 9:11618Punt0–7
GBQ1 6:07738Punt0–7
TBQ1 2:2731Punt0–7
GBQ1 0:49532Turnover0–7
TBQ2 13:40623Field goal3–7
GBQ2 10:57310Punt3–7
TBQ2 8:5730Punt3–7
GBQ2 7:53326Turnover3–7
TBQ2 6:23741Touchdown10–7
GBQ2 2:021052Missed field goal10–7
GBQ3 15:00426Turnover10–7
TBQ3 12:49644Touchdown17–7
GBQ3 9:53419Punt17–7
TBQ3 8:0746Punt17–13
GBQ3 4:49163Touchdown17–14
TBQ3 4:40826Punt17–14
GBQ3 0:0000Punt17–14
GBQ4 15:00621Punt17–14
TBQ4 12:0939Punt17–14
GBQ4 10:3138Punt17–14
TBQ4 9:0143Field goal20–14
GBQ4 6:423-6Punt20–14
TBQ4 4:5544Opp touchdown20–21
GBQ4 3:0300Opp touchdown20–21
TBQ4 3:03420Punt20–21
GBQ4 1:3536Punt20–21
TBQ4 0:24411End of half20–21

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson18/3017720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brad Johnson4266.50
Warrick Dunn351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson610630
Warrick Dunn55300
Karl Williams23270
Reidel Anthony14140
Jameel Cook22130
Dave Moore13111
Aaron Stecker0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre16/2718012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green241697.01
Brett Favre4133.30
Dorsey Levens122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman48651
Ahman Green66490
Charles Lee22290
Bubba Franks11170
Donald Driver22110
David Martin1390
Corey Bradford0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.81