2001 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
GB -5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.054
- 39.6%Success rate42.5%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.149
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- 35.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 42.8%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 1.43Points / drive1.76
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/30 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 16/27 | 180 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 24 | 169 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 6 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.81