Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Total
35
Model margin
+1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.011
- 39.6%Success rate39.7%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.2%Third-down rate42.1%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.28Points / drive1.49
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 15/27 | 192 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Brookins | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 8 | 10 | 129 | 1 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 2 | 9 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 27/48 | 256 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 22 | 71 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 12 | 15 | 99 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 6 | 13 | 68 | 1 |
| Brian Natkin | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 3 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Eddie Berlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.41