2001 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

16·10

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -1.5

Total

35

Model margin

+1.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.011
  • 39.6%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.193
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 45.6%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.49
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed+0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
TENQ1 15:00527Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:5139Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:31411Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:2738Punt0–0
TENQ1 6:4139Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:24733Punt0–0
TENQ1 1:4030Punt0–0
BALQ1 0:123-11Punt0–0
TENQ2 14:211666Missed field goal0–0
BALQ2 5:23617Turnover0–0
TENQ2 3:351346Turnover0–0
BALQ2 0:141-1End of half0–0
BALQ3 15:00226Turnover0–0
TENQ3 14:0939Punt0–0
BALQ3 12:564-9Turnover on downs0–0
TENQ3 12:023-1Field goal0–3
BALQ3 10:1364Field goal3–3
TENQ3 6:45871Touchdown3–10
BALQ3 2:29585Touchdown10–10
TENQ3 0:0539Turnover10–10
BALQ4 14:1433Field goal13–10
TENQ4 13:26618Punt13–10
BALQ4 11:1635Punt13–10
TENQ4 9:023-9Punt13–10
BALQ4 8:171169Field goal16–10
TENQ4 3:061662Turnover on downs16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac15/2719211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jason Brookins14574.10
Obafemi Ayanbadejo6101.70
Travis Taylor188.00
Elvis Grbac231.50
Terry Allen1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail8101291
Shannon Sharpe29180
Brandon Stokley11180
Travis Taylor24160
Todd Heap0100
Obafemi Ayanbadejo11-50

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair27/4825610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George22713.20
Steve McNair6193.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason1215990
Kevin Dyson613681
Brian Natkin12270
Drew Bennett38230
Eddie George34210
Frank Wycheck24180
Eddie Berlin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.41