Closing spread
STL -18
Total
47
Model margin
+4.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 13:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 12:35 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 11:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 8:57 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CAR | Q1 6:14 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 4:45 | 3 | 33 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| CAR | Q1 3:52 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| LA | Q1 3:33 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| CAR | Q1 1:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q2 14:49 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| CAR | Q2 12:19 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–28 |
| LA | Q2 9:46 | 15 | 71 | Field goal | 6–31 |
| CAR | Q2 0:33 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| LA | Q2 0:18 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| CAR | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 7–38 |
| LA | Q3 14:07 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–38 |
| CAR | Q3 14:07 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 7–38 |
| LA | Q3 12:20 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 7–38 |
| CAR | Q3 11:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–38 |
| LA | Q3 10:08 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–45 |
| CAR | Q3 6:52 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–45 |
| LA | Q3 2:35 | 8 | 67 | Field goal | 14–48 |
| CAR | Q4 11:34 | 7 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 14–48 |
| LA | Q4 8:45 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 14–48 |
| CAR | Q4 4:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–48 |
| LA | Q4 2:08 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 14–48 |
| CAR | Q4 0:26 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 14–48 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Lytle | 15/25 | 126 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Matt Lytle | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.45
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.