Closing spread
STL -18
Total
47
Model margin
+4.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Lytle | 15/25 | 126 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Matt Lytle | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.45
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.72
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.