Closing spread
STL -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
+3.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 23/37 | 194 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 9 | 15 | 85 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.