Closing spread
STL -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
+3.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Panthers
- OutJeff OtahTKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulDeAngelo WilliamsRBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulDevin ThomasWRGroin· DNP
Rams
- OutDarian StewartSHamstring· DNP
- OutFendi OnobunTEBack· DNP
- OutJustin KingCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDanario AlexanderWRKnee· Full
- QuestionableDarell ScottDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableFred RobbinsDTToe· Limited
- QuestionableJason SmithTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableRon BartellCBNeck· Limited
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBFinger· Limited
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableDavid VoboraLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableJames ButlerSKnee· Full
- ProbableMardy GilyardWRHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 12:54 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:44 | 3 | 4 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 10:42 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:28 | 8 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 4:37 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:05 | 13 | 65 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q2 10:08 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 8:25 | 12 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 2:07 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:37 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 31 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 9:42 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q3 6:08 | 9 | 15 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 1:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LA | Q4 13:36 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q4 10:52 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| LA | Q4 10:28 | 7 | 10 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| CAR | Q4 6:35 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| LA | Q4 3:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q4 2:28 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| LA | Q4 1:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 23/37 | 194 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 9 | 15 | 85 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.