Closing spread
LA -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
LA perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.083
- 40.8%Success rate41.2%
- -0.062EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -4.71CPOE-2.69
- 31.6%Third-down rate40.2%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.70Points / drive1.57
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. LA are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Walker | 10/16 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Eason | 3/5 | 59 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/33 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.84
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.29