2022 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Phillip Walker

10·24

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -10

Total

41.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

LA perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapRams
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.083
  • 40.8%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback-0.094
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.71CPOE-2.69
  • 31.6%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.57
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–8 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. LA are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CAR34–31RAMS
2025 · W13LA @ CAR28–31CAR
2019 · W1LA @ CAR30–27RAMS
2016 · W9CAR @ LA13–10CAR
2013 · W7STL @ CAR15–30CAR
2010 · W8CAR @ STL10–20RAMS
2007 · W1CAR @ STL27–13CAR
2006 · W11STL @ CAR0–15CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–LA
CARQ1 15:001161Field goal3–0
LAQ1 8:38615Punt3–0
CARQ1 4:57744Punt3–0
LAQ1 0:1439Punt3–0
CARQ2 13:4134Punt3–0
LAQ2 11:321488Touchdown3–7
CARQ2 3:3439Punt3–7
LAQ2 2:3523Opp touchdown10–7
LAQ2 1:58313Punt10–7
CARQ2 0:1600End of half10–7
LAQ3 15:0031Punt10–7
CARQ3 12:2434Punt10–7
LAQ3 11:231172Field goal10–10
CARQ3 4:3737Punt10–10
LAQ3 3:01580Touchdown10–17
CARQ3 0:1135Punt10–17
LAQ4 13:321061Touchdown10–24
CARQ4 8:15410Punt10–24
LAQ4 6:04311Punt10–24
CARQ4 4:19660Turnover10–24
LAQ4 2:20310End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
PJ Walker10/166000
Jacob Eason3/55901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey13695.30
D'Onta Foreman5193.80
Chuba Hubbard263.00
PJ Walker1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey78890
Ian Thomas22220
DJ Moore3770
Chuba Hubbard1110
Shi Smith0200
Terrace Marshall Jr.0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/3325311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson12433.61
Cooper Kupp2178.50
Ben Skowronek11717.01
Malcolm Brown7152.10
Brandon Powell3134.30
Tutu Atwell199.00
Ronnie Rivers100.00
Matthew Stafford2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp78800
Allen Robinson56631
Ben Skowronek55400
Brandon Powell45270
Ronnie Rivers11140
Malcolm Brown11130
Darrell Henderson2390
Tyler Higbee1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.84
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.29