Closing spread
LA -1.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play-0.082
- 44.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.88CPOE-2.45
- 38.8%Third-down rate32.4%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.95Points / drive1.56
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/39 | 186 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 97 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 8 | 13 | 70 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 25/38 | 239 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 128 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.27
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.22