2019 · Week 1

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

30·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

LA -1.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Nothing filed.

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.001EPA / play-0.082
  • 44.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.106
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.88CPOE-2.45
  • 38.8%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.56
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–8 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CAR34–31RAMS
2025 · W13LA @ CAR28–31CAR
2022 · W6CAR @ LA10–24RAMS
2016 · W9CAR @ LA13–10CAR
2013 · W7STL @ CAR15–30CAR
2010 · W8CAR @ STL10–20RAMS
2007 · W1CAR @ STL27–13CAR
2006 · W11STL @ CAR0–15CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–CAR
CARQ1 15:00645Turnover0–0
LAQ1 11:34825Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:4238Punt0–0
LAQ1 5:3130Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:37845Missed field goal0–0
LAQ1 0:41626Field goal3–0
CARQ2 13:432-5Turnover3–0
LAQ2 13:07210Touchdown10–0
CARQ2 12:44412Punt10–0
LAQ2 9:32618Punt10–0
CARQ2 6:1436Punt10–0
LAQ2 4:56833Field goal13–0
CARQ2 1:02647Field goal13–3
LAQ3 15:00776Field goal16–3
CARQ3 11:53860Touchdown16–10
LAQ3 8:281554Touchdown23–10
CARQ3 2:51836Field goal23–13
LAQ3 0:1146Punt23–13
CARQ4 13:3825Touchdown23–20
LAQ4 13:10326Turnover23–20
CARQ4 12:0234Punt23–20
LAQ4 10:31757Touchdown30–20
CARQ4 6:37311Turnover30–20
LAQ4 5:4639Missed field goal30–20
CARQ4 4:06969Touchdown30–27
LAQ4 1:58212End of half30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3918611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley14976.90
Malcolm Brown11534.82
Robert Woods2168.00
Jared Goff400.00
Darrell Henderson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods813700
Cooper Kupp710460
Brandin Cooks26390
Tyler Higbee45201
Gerald Everett1170
Todd Gurley1140
Josh Reynolds0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton25/3823901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey191286.72
Alex Armah111.01
Cam Newton3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey1011810
DJ Moore710760
Greg Olsen49360
Curtis Samuel34320
Jarius Wright11140
Chris Hogan0100
Ian Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.31
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.22