Closing spread
LA -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.025
- 52.2%Success rate43.7%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.007
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.072
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.65CPOE+1.44
- 40.0%Third-down rate35.7%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.67Points / drive1.80
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/28 | 243 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum | 7 | 81 | 11.6 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Smith | 3 | 3 | 82 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 5 | 58 | 2 |
| Colby Parkinson | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/20 | 206 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 1 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.44