2025 · Week 13

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

28·31

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

LA -10

Total

44.5

Model margin

-2.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.149EPA / play-0.025
  • 52.2%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.007
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.072
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.65CPOE+1.44
  • 40.0%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.80
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–8 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CAR34–31RAMS
2022 · W6CAR @ LA10–24RAMS
2019 · W1LA @ CAR30–27RAMS
2016 · W9CAR @ LA13–10CAR
2013 · W7STL @ CAR15–30CAR
2010 · W8CAR @ STL10–20RAMS
2007 · W1CAR @ STL27–13CAR
2006 · W11STL @ CAR0–15CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–CAR
LAQ1 15:00635Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 12:10969Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 7:38760Turnover7–7
CARQ1 4:0237Punt7–7
LAQ1 2:37413Opp touchdown7–14
LAQ1 1:10764Touchdown14–14
CARQ2 12:461270Field goal14–17
LAQ2 5:33875Touchdown21–17
CARQ2 1:55518Punt21–17
LAQ2 0:1400End of half21–17
CARQ3 15:001071Touchdown21–24
LAQ3 8:483-3Punt21–24
CARQ3 6:581347Punt21–24
LAQ4 13:34689Touchdown28–24
CARQ4 9:58665Touchdown28–31
LAQ4 6:341047Turnover28–31
CARQ4 2:25315End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/2824322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Corum78111.61
Kyren Williams13725.51
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Smith33820
Puka Nacua69720
Davante Adams45582
Colby Parkinson45270
Davis Allen1140
Kyren Williams0100
Jordan Whittington0100
Terrance Ferguson0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young15/2020630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard17834.90
Rico Dowdle18583.20
Bryce Young5234.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker46741
Tetairoa McMillan12431
Chuba Hubbard22411
Rico Dowdle22210
Mitchell Evans33200
Trevor Etienne1140
Tommy Tremble1220
Xavier Legette1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

3.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.44