Closing spread
CAR -8
Total
42
Model margin
+4.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutBenny CunninghamRBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulCortland FinneganCBThigh· Limited
- ProbableDarian StewartSIllness· DNP
- ProbableChris LongDEThigh· Full
- ProbableDaren BatesLBHip· Full
- ProbableZac StacyRBChest· Full
Panthers
- OutD.J. MooreCBKnee· Limited
- DoubtfulDwan EdwardsDTHamstring· DNP
- ProbableGreg OlsenTEFoot· Full
- ProbableKenjon BarnerRBFoot· Full
- ProbableMelvin WhiteCBConcussion· Full
- ProbableRobert LesterSHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Panthers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 14:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 13:07 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:52 | 10 | 65 | Turnover on downs | 2–7 |
| CAR | Q1 5:30 | 1 | -1 | Safety | 2–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:23 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 2–7 |
| CAR | Q1 3:42 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 2–10 |
| LA | Q2 14:12 | 15 | 76 | Field goal | 5–10 |
| CAR | Q2 5:25 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 5–17 |
| LA | Q2 1:05 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 5–17 |
| CAR | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 5–17 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 56 | Field goal | 5–20 |
| LA | Q3 6:46 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 12–20 |
| CAR | Q3 5:22 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 12–27 |
| LA | Q3 0:19 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 12–27 |
| CAR | Q4 14:25 | 4 | 23 | Field goal | 12–30 |
| LA | Q4 11:32 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 15–30 |
| CAR | Q4 9:09 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 15–30 |
| LA | Q4 6:57 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 15–30 |
| CAR | Q4 4:30 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 15–30 |
| LA | Q4 2:31 | 5 | 7 | Turnover | 15–30 |
| CAR | Q4 1:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 15–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/17 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.