Closing spread
CAR -8
Total
42
Model margin
+4.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/17 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.