2016 · Week 9

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

13·10

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Case Keenum

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

LA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapRams
  • -0.048EPA / play-0.203
  • 40.9%Success rate36.6%
  • -0.038EPA / dropback-0.222
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.170
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -4.49CPOE-6.92
  • 36.5%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.61Points / drive0.97
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–8 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. LA are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CAR34–31RAMS
2025 · W13LA @ CAR28–31CAR
2022 · W6CAR @ LA10–24RAMS
2019 · W1LA @ CAR30–27RAMS
2013 · W7STL @ CAR15–30CAR
2010 · W8CAR @ STL10–20RAMS
2007 · W1CAR @ STL27–13CAR
2006 · W11STL @ CAR0–15CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–LA
LAQ1 15:00738Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 11:1632Punt0–0
LAQ1 9:4832Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:51953Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 3:4433Punt7–0
CARQ1 2:076-4Punt7–0
LAQ2 14:42434Punt7–0
CARQ2 12:5435Punt7–0
LAQ2 11:06724Punt7–0
CARQ2 6:3438Punt7–0
LAQ2 4:48526Turnover on downs7–0
CARQ2 3:08740Missed field goal7–0
LAQ2 0:29424Missed field goal7–0
CARQ3 15:001048Punt7–0
LAQ3 9:293-1Punt7–0
CARQ3 7:37722Punt7–0
LAQ3 3:19741Turnover7–0
CARQ3 0:05830Field goal10–0
LAQ4 11:12968Field goal10–3
CARQ4 8:01741Field goal13–3
LAQ4 3:181680Touchdown13–10
CARQ4 0:3400End of half13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton20/3222510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart15422.80
Cam Newton7162.30
Fozzy Whittaker100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin57760
Greg Olsen57521
Ted Ginn57400
Devin Funchess15280
Ed Dickson23170
Corey Brown12110
Fozzy Whittaker1110

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum27/4629611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley12484.00
Benny Cunningham3103.30
Tavon Austin111.00
Malcolm Brown100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Kendricks712900
Kenny Britt46491
Brian Quick46480
Benny Cunningham56320
Tyler Higbee17310
Todd Gurley45260
Tavon Austin12170
Pharoh Cooper1130
Bradley Marquez0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.87