Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play-0.203
- 40.9%Success rate36.6%
- -0.038EPA / dropback-0.222
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.170
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- -4.49CPOE-6.92
- 36.5%Third-down rate32.2%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.61Points / drive0.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. LA are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 20/32 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 5 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 27/46 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Kendricks | 7 | 12 | 90 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Brian Quick | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Bradley Marquez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.87