Closing spread
STL -1.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 18/27 | 201 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 17 | 94 | 5.5 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.54
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.