2025 · WC

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

34·31

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

LA -10

Total

44.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.149EPA / play-0.025
  • 52.2%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.007
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.072
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.65CPOE+1.44
  • 40.0%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.80
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–8 since 1999

Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13LA @ CAR28–31CAR
2022 · W6CAR @ LA10–24RAMS
2019 · W1LA @ CAR30–27RAMS
2016 · W9CAR @ LA13–10CAR
2013 · W7STL @ CAR15–30CAR
2010 · W8CAR @ STL10–20RAMS
2007 · W1CAR @ STL27–13CAR
2006 · W11STL @ CAR0–15CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–CAR
CARQ1 15:0049Turnover on downs0–0
LAQ1 13:26445Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 11:35513Punt7–0
LAQ1 9:25524Punt7–0
CARQ1 5:43837Turnover7–0
LAQ1 1:17748Touchdown14–0
CARQ2 12:16863Touchdown14–7
LAQ2 8:53647Field goal17–7
CARQ2 5:2438Punt17–7
LAQ2 3:4134Punt17–7
LAQ2 2:44732Turnover on downs17–7
CARQ2 1:31653Touchdown17–14
LAQ2 0:37414Punt17–14
CARQ2 0:0800End of half17–14
LAQ3 15:0030Punt17–14
CARQ3 14:371354Field goal17–17
LAQ3 7:29931Field goal20–17
CARQ3 4:1746Turnover on downs20–17
LAQ3 2:463-3Turnover20–17
CARQ3 1:14459Touchdown20–24
LAQ4 14:341167Touchdown27–24
CARQ4 8:4732Punt27–24
LAQ4 7:14633Punt27–24
CARQ4 4:12430Touchdown27–31
LAQ4 2:39771Touchdown34–31
CARQ4 0:3840Turnover on downs34–31
LAQ4 0:0700End of half34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/4230431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams13574.40
Blake Corum11454.10
Puka Nacua3144.71
Matthew Stafford200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua10181111
Davante Adams513720
Tyler Higbee23450
Colby Parkinson23341
Kyren Williams22181
Blake Corum22130
Konata Mumpfield11110

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young21/4026411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard13463.52
Bryce Young3248.01
Rico Dowdle591.80
Trevor Etienne144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker9121341
Tetairoa McMillan57810
Tommy Tremble33220
Chuba Hubbard24130
Xavier Legette1480
Rico Dowdle1260
James Mitchell0100
Brycen Tremayne0100
Mitchell Evans0100
Jimmy Horn Jr.0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -103.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.9%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.28