Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.090EPA / play-0.282
- 39.0%Success rate40.8%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.233
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.375
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- 37.7%Third-down rate34.6%
- 46.6%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
- 0.98Points / drive0.28
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 8-7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 28/48 | 303 | 0 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 20/32 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Corey Dillon | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Elvis Joseph | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Frank Moreau | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Quinn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 14 | 63 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 6 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 5 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Peter Warrick | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.41