Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.090EPA / play-0.282
- 39.0%Success rate40.8%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.233
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.375
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- 37.7%Third-down rate34.6%
- 46.6%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
- 0.98Points / drive0.28
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 42.2 points. JAX are 9-7-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:59 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:00 | 5 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 6–1 |
| CIN | Q1 8:18 | 13 | 39 | Punt | 6–1 |
| JAX | Q1 2:23 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 6–1 |
| CIN | Q1 0:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–1 |
| JAX | Q2 14:09 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 6–1 |
| CIN | Q2 12:40 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 9–1 |
| JAX | Q2 9:33 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 9–1 |
| CIN | Q2 8:02 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 16–1 |
| JAX | Q2 4:03 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 16–1 |
| CIN | Q2 1:40 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 19–1 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 65 | Opp touchdown | 25–2 |
| CIN | Q3 10:29 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 25–2 |
| JAX | Q3 7:17 | 7 | 30 | Opp touchdown | 31–3 |
| CIN | Q3 4:25 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 31–3 |
| JAX | Q3 3:08 | 5 | 57 | Opp touchdown | 37–4 |
| CIN | Q3 0:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 37–4 |
| JAX | Q4 14:25 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 37–4 |
| CIN | Q4 12:38 | 12 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 37–4 |
| JAX | Q4 7:54 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 39–4 |
| CIN | Q4 6:11 | 1 | -6 | Safety | 39–4 |
| JAX | Q4 6:05 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 39–4 |
| CIN | Q4 2:37 | 10 | 91 | Turnover | 39–4 |
| JAX | Q4 0:19 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 39–4 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 28/48 | 303 | 0 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 20/32 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Corey Dillon | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Elvis Joseph | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Frank Moreau | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Quinn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 14 | 63 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 6 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 5 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Peter Warrick | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.41