2021 · Week 4

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

21·24

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+4.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBengals
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.063
  • 44.0%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.094
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -4.53CPOE+5.14
  • 35.6%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.38
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN
2012 · W4CIN @ JAX27–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CIN
JAXQ1 15:00724Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:49976Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 5:21867Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 1:2832Punt7–0
JAXQ1 0:2938Punt7–0
CINQ2 14:10417Punt7–0
JAXQ2 11:551280Touchdown14–0
CINQ2 4:4538Punt14–0
JAXQ2 2:23561Turnover on downs14–0
CINQ2 0:5324End of half14–0
CINQ3 15:00469Touchdown14–7
JAXQ3 13:1233Punt14–7
CINQ3 11:391286Touchdown14–14
JAXQ3 5:101273Touchdown21–14
CINQ4 14:271075Touchdown21–21
JAXQ4 8:59625Punt21–21
CINQ4 5:331183Field goal21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence17/2420400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson18784.32
Trevor Lawrence8364.51
Jamal Agnew11111.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.11111.00
Dare Ogunbowale231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laviska Shenault Jr.67990
Dan Arnold22290
Jamal Agnew11270
Marvin Jones33240
Tavon Austin1380
Chris Manhertz1170
Luke Farrell1170
Jacob Hollister1150
Tyron Johnson0100
James Robinson12-20

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/3234820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon16674.21
Samaje Perine372.30
Joe Burrow341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd9111180
C.J. Uzomah56952
Ja'Marr Chase69770
Trenton Irwin11250
Auden Tate11180
Samaje Perine11150
Mike Thomas1100
Joe Mixon1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.85