Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.063
- 44.0%Success rate44.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.094
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- -4.53CPOE+5.14
- 35.6%Third-down rate40.1%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.33Points / drive2.38
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/24 | 204 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 6 | 7 | 99 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/32 | 348 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 9 | 11 | 118 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 5 | 6 | 95 | 2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.85