Closing spread
CIN -10
Total
44
Model margin
+4.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.161EPA / play-0.019
- 37.6%Success rate42.0%
- -0.184EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.020
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- -7.00CPOE+0.60
- 32.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 0.97Points / drive1.86
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 22/33 | 247 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denard Robinson | 17 | 94 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 7 | 9 | 112 | 2 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 19/31 | 233 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 24 | 154 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| James Wright | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.23