2014 · Week 9

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

23·33

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CIN -10

Total

44

Model margin

+4.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBengals
  • -0.161EPA / play-0.019
  • 37.6%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.184EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.020
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -7.00CPOE+0.60
  • 32.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.86
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2012 · W4CIN @ JAX27–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CIN
JAXQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:06415Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:51417Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:5859Punt0–0
JAXQ1 6:38964Field goal3–0
CINQ1 1:211080Touchdown3–7
JAXQ2 11:4831Punt3–7
CINQ2 9:541054Field goal3–10
JAXQ2 4:253-9Safety3–12
CINQ2 2:58420Punt3–12
JAXQ2 1:30524Punt3–12
CINQ3 15:00862Touchdown3–19
JAXQ3 10:33364Touchdown10–19
CINQ3 9:36838Turnover10–19
JAXQ3 4:57623Punt10–19
CINQ3 2:58630Punt10–19
JAXQ3 0:2832Punt10–19
CINQ4 14:39223Touchdown10–26
JAXQ4 13:54870Touchdown16–26
CINQ4 9:5532Turnover16–26
JAXQ4 8:5627Touchdown23–26
CINQ4 8:13160Touchdown23–33
JAXQ4 8:04965Turnover23–33
CINQ4 3:55730Punt23–33
JAXQ4 0:45321End of half23–33

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles22/3324721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Denard Robinson17945.51
Toby Gerhart3196.30
Blake Bortles4102.50
Jordan Todman199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns791122
Toby Gerhart34490
Cecil Shorts57400
Allen Robinson48350
Denard Robinson22100
Jordan Todman1110
Clay Harbor0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton19/3123322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill241546.42
Andy Dalton2115.50
James Wright11111.00
Cedric Peerman591.80
Mohamed Sanu199.00
A.J. Green1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Sanu48951
A.J. Green36441
Jermaine Gresham56360
Cedric Peerman24220
Brandon Tate11100
Rex Burkhead23100
Jeremy Hill1190
Ryan Hewitt1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.23