Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play-0.097
- 39.3%Success rate40.3%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.137
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.03CPOE-5.27
- 35.4%Third-down rate36.0%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.61Points / drive1.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 15/32 | 255 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 29 | 131 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 6 | 9 | 103 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Seth DeValve | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/43 | 276 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 10 | 2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Erickson | 8 | 14 | 137 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 3 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 14 | 55 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79