2019 · Week 7

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

27·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

JAX -4

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBengals
  • -0.053EPA / play-0.097
  • 39.3%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.137
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -3.03CPOE-5.27
  • 35.4%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN
2012 · W4CIN @ JAX27–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CIN
JAXQ1 15:00979Turnover on downs0–0
CINQ1 10:3936Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:404-3Punt0–0
CINQ1 6:34412Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:463-2Punt0–0
CINQ1 3:303-7Punt0–0
JAXQ1 1:58759Punt0–0
CINQ2 13:2832Punt0–0
JAXQ2 11:491069Field goal3–0
CINQ2 6:3067Punt3–0
JAXQ2 5:02638Punt3–0
CINQ2 2:14790Touchdown3–7
JAXQ2 1:25769Field goal6–7
CINQ2 0:0410End of half6–7
CINQ3 15:00643Turnover6–7
JAXQ3 13:201138Field goal9–7
CINQ3 6:523-11Punt9–7
JAXQ3 5:1631Punt9–7
CINQ3 3:38962Field goal9–10
JAXQ3 0:31575Touchdown17–10
CINQ4 12:411045Turnover17–10
JAXQ4 8:25614Punt17–10
CINQ4 5:1140Opp touchdown24–10
CINQ4 4:1810Turnover24–10
JAXQ4 3:59624Field goal27–10
CINQ4 1:561042Touchdown27–17
JAXQ4 0:2300End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew15/3225510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette291314.50
Gardner Minshew9485.30
DJ Chark12020.00
Dede Westbrook2147.00
Ryquell Armstead331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dede Westbrook691030
Chris Conley37830
DJ Chark35530
Leonard Fournette22140
Keelan Cole1221
Seth DeValve0200
Ryquell Armstead0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/4327613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andy Dalton4338.31
Joe Mixon1020.20
Giovani Bernard400.00
Alex Erickson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alex Erickson8141370
Auden Tate36650
Tyler Boyd514550
Tyler Eifert22100
Giovani Bernard2340
Drew Sample1130
Joe Mixon1221

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.79