Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
50
Model margin
+2.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.041
- 42.0%Success rate44.2%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.122
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.5%
- -0.40CPOE+0.03
- 40.6%Third-down rate37.1%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.74Points / drive1.87
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 27/40 | 351 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 8 | 9 | 95 | 2 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/36 | 300 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 25 | 151 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 6 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Cethan Carter | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.52