2020 · Week 4

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew II

25·33

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

50

Model margin

+2.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBengals
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.041
  • 42.0%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.122
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -0.40CPOE+0.03
  • 40.6%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 64.8%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.87
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN
2012 · W4CIN @ JAX27–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CIN
JAXQ1 15:00516Turnover0–0
CINQ1 12:5833Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:30945Missed field goal0–0
CINQ1 6:38955Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 2:41740Touchdown7–3
CINQ1 0:211383Turnover7–3
JAXQ2 9:211066Field goal10–3
CINQ2 3:45975Touchdown10–10
JAXQ2 0:56673Field goal13–10
CINQ2 0:0300End of half13–10
CINQ3 15:00575Touchdown13–17
JAXQ3 12:2945Punt13–17
CINQ3 11:37856Touchdown13–24
JAXQ3 8:2837Punt13–24
CINQ3 6:54737Field goal13–27
JAXQ3 3:29843Field goal16–27
CINQ4 14:331057Field goal16–30
JAXQ4 9:20971Touchdown22–30
CINQ4 6:14966Field goal22–33
JAXQ4 1:46563Field goal25–33
CINQ4 0:0800End of half25–33

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew27/4035121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson17754.40
Gardner Minshew294.50
Laviska Shenault Jr.155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark89952
Laviska Shenault Jr.56860
Keelan Cole45460
Chris Conley34440
James Robinson44320
James O'Shaughnessy12260
Tyler Eifert26220

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/3630011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon251516.02
Giovani Bernard2199.50
Tee Higgins11313.00
Joe Burrow4112.80
Alex Erickson177.00
Tyler Boyd144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd78900
Tee Higgins47770
Drew Sample35470
Joe Mixon66301
Cethan Carter11240
Auden Tate11150
Alex Erickson1190
Mike Thomas1150
A.J. Green1530

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.52