Closing spread
JAX -6
Total
38
Model margin
+5.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.020
- 39.2%Success rate41.7%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.095
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.89CPOE-2.97
- 34.7%Third-down rate36.9%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.49Points / drive1.81
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 8-7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 10/18 | 136 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 2 | 79 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 24/38 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 8 | 12 | 75 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.54