2017 · Week 9

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

7·23

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

JAX -6

Total

38

Model margin

+5.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.020
  • 39.2%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.095
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.89CPOE-2.97
  • 34.7%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.81
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. JAX are 9-7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN
2012 · W4CIN @ JAX27–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001050Turnover0–0
CINQ1 9:20410Punt0–0
JAXQ1 6:36871Field goal0–3
CINQ1 2:34627Punt0–3
JAXQ2 14:521596Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 6:57580Touchdown7–10
JAXQ2 4:131132Field goal7–13
CINQ2 0:2311End of half7–13
CINQ3 15:00736Punt7–13
JAXQ3 11:30952Field goal7–16
CINQ3 6:513-15Punt7–16
JAXQ3 4:26623Punt7–16
CINQ3 1:0646Opp touchdown7–23
CINQ4 14:3545Punt7–23
JAXQ4 12:25621Punt7–23
CINQ4 10:1030Punt7–23
JAXQ4 9:061464Turnover on downs7–23
CINQ4 0:3300End of half7–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton10/1813600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon13312.41
Andy Dalton3-1-0.30
Giovani Bernard1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Kroft22790
Brandon LaFell22280
Joe Mixon34150
Josh Malone14130
A.J. Green1260
C.J. Uzomah0100
Alex Erickson0100
Giovani Bernard11-50

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles24/3825910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory20703.50
T.J. Yeldon11413.70
Blake Bortles5204.00
Corey Grant4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee812751
Marcedes Lewis36490
Keelan Cole35470
Chris Ivory34340
Allen Hurns34310
T.J. Yeldon24110
James O'Shaughnessy1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.54