2025 · Week 2

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

27·31

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 85°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bengals

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBengals
  • +0.039EPA / play+0.012
  • 44.5%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.073EPA / rush+0.012
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.56CPOE+1.28
  • 40.9%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.93
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN
2012 · W4CIN @ JAX27–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CIN
JAXQ1 15:00969Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 10:513-2Punt7–0
JAXQ1 9:16864Turnover7–0
CINQ1 4:521180Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 0:07875Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 10:54812Punt14–7
JAXQ2 7:5634Turnover14–7
CINQ2 7:04617Field goal14–10
JAXQ2 3:28646Field goal17–10
CINQ2 1:35424Turnover17–10
JAXQ2 0:2629End of half17–10
CINQ3 15:00776Touchdown17–17
JAXQ3 11:0539Punt17–17
CINQ3 9:19416Turnover17–17
JAXQ3 7:10535Touchdown24–17
CINQ3 4:08347Touchdown24–24
JAXQ3 2:391253Field goal27–24
CINQ4 11:433-2Punt27–24
JAXQ4 10:45941Punt27–24
CINQ4 6:03311Turnover27–24
JAXQ4 5:1245Turnover on downs27–24
CINQ4 3:421771Touchdown27–31
JAXQ4 0:182-10End of half27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence24/4227132

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne14715.10
Bhayshul Tuten8425.30
LeQuint Allen Jr.2136.50
Dyami Brown199.00
Trevor Lawrence242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington55760
Dyami Brown57571
Brian Thomas Jr.412490
Bhayshul Tuten22321
Travis Etienne23181
Brenton Strange35170
Tim Patrick0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Browning21/3224123
Joe Burrow7/137610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown16472.90
Jake Browning111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase14161651
Tee Higgins38561
Noah Fant34280
Mike Gesicki34180
Chase Brown23180
Mitchell Tinsley11131
Andrei Iosivas15120
Drew Sample1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.56