Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play+0.012
- 44.5%Success rate46.4%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.073EPA / rush+0.012
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.56CPOE+1.28
- 40.9%Third-down rate44.3%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 2.30Points / drive1.93
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/42 | 271 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 5 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 5 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 12 | 49 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Brenton Strange | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 21/32 | 241 | 2 | 3 |
| Joe Burrow | 7/13 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 14 | 16 | 165 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56