2026 · Week 4

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

22·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBengals
  • +0.117EPA / play+0.108
  • 46.8%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.227EPA / dropback+0.206
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.087
  • 9.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +3.79CPOE+7.31
  • 49.4%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 71.6%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 2.62Points / drive2.52
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN
2012 · W4CIN @ JAX27–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CIN
JAXQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:16634Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:431059Field goal3–0
CINQ1 2:181447Field goal3–3
JAXQ2 10:031283Field goal6–3
CINQ2 4:16520Turnover6–3
JAXQ2 1:49524Touchdown13–3
CINQ2 1:23745End of half13–3
CINQ3 15:001362Touchdown13–10
JAXQ3 8:44939Field goal16–10
CINQ3 3:00974Turnover16–10
JAXQ4 14:10520Punt16–10
CINQ4 11:38518Punt16–10
JAXQ4 10:29761Touchdown22–10
CINQ4 6:351066Touchdown22–17
JAXQ4 3:28624Punt22–17
CINQ4 1:44771Turnover on downs22–17
JAXQ4 0:5000End of half22–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence18/2322710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bhayshul Tuten17734.30
Chris Rodriguez Jr.6355.81
Parker Washington133.00
Trevor Lawrence300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brenton Strange78950
Josh Cameron22420
Jakobi Meyers34330
Bhayshul Tuten22180
Brian Thomas Jr.22171
Nate Boerkircher12150
Parker Washington1370

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow39/5442812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown9101.10
Samaje Perine372.30
Joe Burrow362.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins11161570
Dohnte Meyers79820
Chase Brown1111710
Mitchell Tinsley37490
Mike Gesicki35401
Ja'Marr Chase33270
Tanner Hudson1120
Samaje Perine0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.74