Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-8.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapBengals
- +0.310EPA / play+0.001
- 59.3%Success rate47.6%
- +0.731EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.053EPA / rush+0.050
- 16.7%Explosive rate11.1%
- +22.32CPOE+6.35
- 55.6%Third-down rate57.1%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 3.76Points / drive2.11
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-10.58
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-8.36