Closing spread
JAX -10
Total
41
Model margin
+0.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play-0.032
- 44.4%Success rate43.1%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.192
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.09CPOE+1.62
- 38.3%Third-down rate38.5%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.91Points / drive1.84
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. JAX are 8-7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 32/37 | 354 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1/1 | -7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Chase Brown | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 11 | 12 | 149 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 22/29 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 9/10 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 1 |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 9 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 6 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.28
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.85