2023 · Week 13

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jake Browning

34·31

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

JAX -10

Total

41

Model margin

+0.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.001EPA / play-0.032
  • 44.4%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.192
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.09CPOE+1.62
  • 38.3%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.84
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. JAX are 9-7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN
2012 · W4CIN @ JAX27–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–JAX
CINQ1 15:00814Turnover on downs0–0
JAXQ1 10:40751Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 6:51646Missed field goal0–7
JAXQ1 2:1336Punt0–7
CINQ1 1:16892Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 12:241080Touchdown7–14
CINQ2 6:241275Touchdown14–14
JAXQ2 1:04413Punt14–14
CINQ2 0:2215End of half14–14
JAXQ3 15:0039Punt14–14
CINQ3 13:21384Touchdown21–14
JAXQ3 11:501279Touchdown21–21
CINQ3 5:2610Turnover21–21
JAXQ3 5:1649Touchdown21–28
CINQ3 3:10433Punt21–28
JAXQ3 0:5037Punt21–28
CINQ4 14:431043Touchdown28–28
JAXQ4 9:27745Missed field goal28–28
CINQ4 4:59636Field goal31–28
JAXQ4 2:28851Field goal31–31
CINQ4 0:26321End of half31–31
JAXOT826Punt31–31
CINOT1142Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Browning32/3735410
Tyler Boyd0/1001
Ja'Marr Chase1/1-700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon19683.62
Chase Brown9616.80
Jake Browning22211.01
Tyler Boyd155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase11121491
Joe Mixon67490
Tyler Boyd57370
Tee Higgins33360
Tanner Hudson44350
Trenton Irwin11250
Mitchell Wilcox11120
Drew Sample11110
Jake Browning11-70

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence22/2925820
C.J. Beathard9/106300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne11454.11
Trevor Lawrence581.61
C.J. Beathard177.00
Calvin Ridley372.30
D'Ernest Johnson540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram99821
Zay Jones58780
Parker Washington66611
Travis Etienne44340
Christian Kirk11260
Calvin Ridley48260
Luke Farrell1190
D'Ernest Johnson1150
Tim Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.28
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.85