Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
37
Model margin
-2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.062
- 36.1%Success rate39.3%
- -0.132EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- 32.7%Third-down rate40.9%
- 32.6%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
- 0.93Points / drive1.45
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed+0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Leaf | 14/22 | 114 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 20 | 127 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 7 | 85 | 12.1 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Taylor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Leaf | 3 | -7 | -2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| J.J. Huggins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 4/12 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 3/4 | 23 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 27 | 148 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.32