Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
37
Model margin
-2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.062
- 36.1%Success rate39.3%
- -0.132EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- 32.7%Third-down rate40.9%
- 32.6%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
- 0.93Points / drive1.45
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed+0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:06 | 12 | 74 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 4:48 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q1 1:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q2 14:43 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 14:17 | 5 | 58 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| ATL | Q2 10:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q2 8:24 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 6–7 |
| ATL | Q2 5:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| ATL | Q2 3:52 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| DAL | Q2 2:21 | 4 | 61 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| ATL | Q2 0:55 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 13–7 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| ATL | Q3 14:56 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| DAL | Q3 10:34 | 19 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 13–10 |
| ATL | Q3 0:55 | 7 | 19 | Missed field goal | 13–10 |
| DAL | Q4 11:57 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 13–10 |
| ATL | Q4 8:10 | 5 | 15 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| DAL | Q4 5:20 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 13–17 |
| ATL | Q4 4:08 | 5 | 29 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| DAL | Q4 1:11 | 5 | 37 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| ATL | Q4 0:08 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Leaf | 14/22 | 114 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 20 | 127 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 7 | 85 | 12.1 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Taylor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Leaf | 3 | -7 | -2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| J.J. Huggins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 4/12 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 3/4 | 23 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 27 | 148 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.87
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.32