Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.063
- 42.5%Success rate39.4%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.099
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 35.7%Third-down rate33.3%
- 63.7%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.76Points / drive1.28
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.146
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/32 | 268 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 6 | 100 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 9 | 68 | 1 |
| David Martin | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 28/47 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 22 | 45 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Dez White | 7 | 13 | 45 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.53