Closing spread
NYJ -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.031
- 43.9%Success rate41.1%
- +0.002EPA / dropback+0.011
- +0.032EPA / rush-0.079
- 10.8%Explosive rate10.9%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.54Points / drive1.16
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/31 | 143 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thomas | 3 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 17/27 | 170 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 3 |
| LaMont Jordan | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 6 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| James Dearth | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.33