2001 · Week 9

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

7·27

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYJ -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJets
  • +0.014EPA / play-0.031
  • 43.9%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.002EPA / dropback+0.011
  • +0.032EPA / rush-0.079
  • 10.8%Explosive rate10.9%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 50.6%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.16
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.011EPA / play allowed-0.047

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–5 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4KC @ NYJ23–20KC
2020 · W8NYJ @ KC9–35KC
2017 · W13KC @ NYJ31–38NYJ
2016 · W3NYJ @ KC3–24KC
2014 · W9NYJ @ KC10–24KC
2011 · W14KC @ NYJ10–37NYJ
2008 · W8KC @ NYJ24–28NYJ
2007 · W17KC @ NYJ10–13NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NYJ
KCQ1 15:00625Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 11:3536Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:0134Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:38517Turnover0–0
KCQ1 6:55924Punt0–0
NYJQ1 1:121396Touchdown0–7
KCQ2 8:40418Punt0–7
NYJQ2 5:51823Punt0–7
KCQ2 1:46214Turnover0–7
NYJQ2 1:32548Touchdown0–14
KCQ2 0:2438Punt0–14
NYJQ3 15:00630Field goal0–17
KCQ3 12:09530Turnover0–17
NYJQ3 10:07665Touchdown0–24
KCQ3 6:4066Turnover0–24
NYJQ3 4:1937Field goal0–27
KCQ3 2:06635Punt0–27
NYJQ3 0:0000Punt0–27
NYJQ4 15:0033Punt0–27
KCQ4 13:26948Touchdown7–27
NYJQ4 9:14428Turnover7–27
KCQ4 6:5547Punt7–27
NYJQ4 5:2530Punt7–27
KCQ4 3:4145Turnover on downs7–27
NYJQ4 2:58630End of half7–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green16/3114313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes18713.90
Dante Hall166.00
Trent Green210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Thomas38480
Tony Gonzalez58431
Derrick Alexander13250
Snoop Minnis1240
Priest Holmes3310
Larry Parker0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde17/2717001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin201135.73
LaMont Jordan10404.00
Laveranues Coles11111.00
Vinny Testaverde3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wayne Chrebet69670
Laveranues Coles44310
Anthony Becht24220
James Dearth1190
Curtis Martin2280
Matt Hatchette0100
Kevin Swayne0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.33