2007 · Week 17

Final / OT

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Brodie Croyle

10·13

Jets

New York

QB Kellen Clemens

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYJ -4

Total

35.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJets
  • -0.132EPA / play-0.075
  • 37.8%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.112EPA / dropback-0.065
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.088
  • 5.9%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -0.79CPOE+0.41
  • 34.0%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 55.6%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 0.94Points / drive1.32
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–5 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4KC @ NYJ23–20KC
2020 · W8NYJ @ KC9–35KC
2017 · W13KC @ NYJ31–38NYJ
2016 · W3NYJ @ KC3–24KC
2014 · W9NYJ @ KC10–24KC
2011 · W14KC @ NYJ10–37NYJ
2008 · W8KC @ NYJ24–28NYJ
2005 · W1NYJ @ KC7–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00827Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ1 11:4838Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:41521Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:523-4Punt0–0
NYJQ1 5:26412Punt0–0
KCQ1 2:2237Punt0–0
NYJQ1 0:54751Touchdown0–7
KCQ2 13:071011Punt0–7
NYJQ2 8:503-1Punt0–7
KCQ2 7:02417Field goal3–7
NYJQ2 5:081259Field goal3–10
KCQ2 0:1300End of half3–10
KCQ3 15:00630Punt3–10
NYJQ3 12:3434Punt3–10
KCQ3 11:2930Punt3–10
NYJQ3 10:4347Turnover on downs3–10
KCQ3 9:00723Punt3–10
NYJQ3 5:20426Punt3–10
KCQ3 2:29628Punt3–10
NYJQ4 14:50421Punt3–10
KCQ4 12:1156Punt3–10
NYJQ4 9:34431Punt3–10
KCQ4 6:57983Touchdown10–10
NYJQ4 2:59625Punt10–10
KCQ4 1:15611Punt10–10
NYJQ4 0:1000End of half10–10
NYJOT1055Field goal10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brodie Croyle20/4319510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jackie Battle13443.40
Kris Wilson122.00
Brodie Croyle221.00
Kolby Smith210.50

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kellen Clemens13/2511510
Leon Washington1/13600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones25983.90
Leon Washington11676.10
Kellen Clemens8182.30
Jerricho Cotchery11616.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.46