Closing spread
NYJ -4
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.075
- 37.8%Success rate41.4%
- -0.112EPA / dropback-0.065
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.088
- 5.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- -0.79CPOE+0.41
- 34.0%Third-down rate37.1%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 0.94Points / drive1.32
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 20/43 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kris Wilson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brodie Croyle | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 13/25 | 115 | 1 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1/1 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 25 | 98 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.42
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.46