2016 · Week 3

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

3·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.012
  • 40.5%Success rate42.7%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.70CPOE+2.15
  • 36.5%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.88
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–5 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4KC @ NYJ23–20KC
2020 · W8NYJ @ KC9–35KC
2017 · W13KC @ NYJ31–38NYJ
2014 · W9NYJ @ KC10–24KC
2011 · W14KC @ NYJ10–37NYJ
2008 · W8KC @ NYJ24–28NYJ
2007 · W17KC @ NYJ10–13NYJ
2005 · W1NYJ @ KC7–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–KC
NYJQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:121250Punt0–0
NYJQ1 5:09621Turnover0–0
KCQ1 2:24435Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 0:13528Turnover0–7
KCQ2 13:101344Field goal0–16
NYJQ2 6:1100Touchdown0–17
NYJQ2 6:02846Field goal3–17
KCQ2 2:06711End of half3–17
KCQ3 15:00647Punt3–17
NYJQ3 11:35423Punt3–17
KCQ3 9:14462Turnover3–17
NYJQ3 7:011256Turnover3–17
KCQ3 1:30841Turnover on downs3–17
NYJQ4 12:211145Turnover3–17
KCQ4 8:1633Punt3–17
NYJQ4 6:391031Turnover3–17
KCQ4 4:3833Punt3–17
NYJQ4 4:1028Opp touchdown3–24
NYJQ4 3:28528Turnover3–24
KCQ4 1:5400End of half3–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick20/4418806

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte15654.30
Bilal Powell4307.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick3227.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bilal Powell66410
Quincy Enunwa411370
Robbie Chosen22340
Eric Decker16310
Brandon Marshall310270
Jalin Marshall25190
Matt Forte24-10

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith25/3323710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Ware20753.80
Charcandrick West331.00
Alex Smith3-3-1.00
Tyreek Hill1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce67891
Chris Conley35440
Jeremy Maclin47350
Tyreek Hill34260
Demetrius Harris23140
Ross Travis22100
Spencer Ware1180
Charcandrick West3380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.74