Closing spread
KC -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.012
- 40.5%Success rate42.7%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.70CPOE+2.15
- 36.5%Third-down rate38.7%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.40Points / drive1.88
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/44 | 188 | 0 | 6 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 4 | 11 | 37 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| Jalin Marshall | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 25/33 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 89 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.74