2020 · Week 8

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

9·35

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 52°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

KC -20

Total

49

Model margin

+4.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.116EPA / play+0.177
  • 40.9%Success rate50.2%
  • -0.098EPA / dropback+0.288
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.056
  • 7.4%Explosive rate11.0%
  • -2.07CPOE+2.60
  • 34.4%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 41.2%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.24Points / drive2.85
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–5 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4KC @ NYJ23–20KC
2017 · W13KC @ NYJ31–38NYJ
2016 · W3NYJ @ KC3–24KC
2014 · W9NYJ @ KC10–24KC
2011 · W14KC @ NYJ10–37NYJ
2008 · W8KC @ NYJ24–28NYJ
2007 · W17KC @ NYJ10–13NYJ
2005 · W1NYJ @ KC7–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–KC
KCQ1 15:00790Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 11:081243Field goal3–7
KCQ1 4:39773Touchdown3–14
NYJQ1 1:17643Field goal6–14
KCQ2 13:02613Punt6–14
NYJQ2 9:571251Field goal9–14
KCQ2 2:55761Touchdown9–21
NYJQ2 0:58421Missed field goal9–21
NYJQ3 15:0034Punt9–21
KCQ3 13:5534Punt9–21
NYJQ3 13:0237Punt9–21
KCQ3 11:331061Turnover on downs9–21
NYJQ3 7:1239Punt9–21
KCQ3 5:36683Touchdown9–28
NYJQ3 2:15417Turnover9–28
KCQ3 0:1537Punt9–28
NYJQ4 14:1235Punt9–28
KCQ4 13:08665Touchdown9–35
NYJQ4 10:5836Punt9–35
KCQ4 9:221239Turnover on downs9–35
NYJQ4 1:56315End of half9–35

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold18/3013300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore10303.00
La'Mical Perine8273.40
Sam Darnold4215.30
Ty Johnson3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Denzel Mims23420
Braxton Berrios811340
Jeff Smith38290
Vyncint Smith11130
Ty Johnson1160
La'Mical Perine2260
Chris Herndon1230

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes31/4241650
Chad Henne3/41700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire6213.50
Darrel Williams3196.30
Le'Veon Bell671.20
Darwin Thompson430.80
Chad Henne100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce8121091
Tyreek Hill46982
Mecole Hardman79961
Demarcus Robinson45631
Le'Veon Bell33310
Byron Pringle34220
Clyde Edwards-Helaire33100
Darrel Williams1170
Nick Keizer1250
Deon Yelder1150
Darwin Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +203.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%2.3%1.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.58