Closing spread
KC -20
Total
49
Model margin
+4.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.177
- 40.9%Success rate50.2%
- -0.098EPA / dropback+0.288
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.056
- 7.4%Explosive rate11.0%
- -2.07CPOE+2.60
- 34.4%Third-down rate49.5%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.24Points / drive2.85
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 18/30 | 133 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Mims | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 8 | 11 | 34 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 31/42 | 416 | 5 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3/4 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 12 | 109 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 98 | 2 |
| Mecole Hardman | 7 | 9 | 96 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Keizer | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.58