2011 · Week 14

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Tyler Palko

10·37

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -10.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJets
  • -0.094EPA / play-0.072
  • 38.8%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.088
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -1.61CPOE-3.75
  • 35.7%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 38.2%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.44
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–5 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4KC @ NYJ23–20KC
2020 · W8NYJ @ KC9–35KC
2017 · W13KC @ NYJ31–38NYJ
2016 · W3NYJ @ KC3–24KC
2014 · W9NYJ @ KC10–24KC
2008 · W8KC @ NYJ24–28NYJ
2007 · W17KC @ NYJ10–13NYJ
2005 · W1NYJ @ KC7–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 8:4035Punt0–7
NYJQ1 7:3934Punt0–7
KCQ1 6:1436Field goal3–7
NYJQ1 4:36732Punt3–7
KCQ1 0:31413Punt3–7
NYJQ2 13:4030Punt3–7
KCQ2 11:443-1Turnover3–7
NYJQ2 11:06338Touchdown3–14
KCQ2 10:0230Punt3–14
NYJQ2 8:23969Touchdown3–21
KCQ2 3:563-6Punt3–21
NYJQ2 2:32435Touchdown3–28
KCQ2 1:152-13End of half3–28
KCQ3 15:00534Punt3–28
NYJQ3 13:0734Punt3–28
KCQ3 11:29730Punt3–28
NYJQ3 8:141216Touchdown3–35
KCQ3 4:06735Punt3–35
NYJQ3 2:2435Punt3–35
KCQ3 0:481065Touchdown10–35
NYJQ4 12:584-7Turnover10–35
KCQ4 11:27642Turnover on downs10–35
NYJQ4 9:27734Punt10–37
KCQ4 3:431-1Safety10–37
NYJQ4 3:3739Punt10–37
KCQ4 1:06312End of half10–37

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Palko16/3219511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jackie Battle10333.30
Thomas Jones5122.40
Tyler Palko11212.00
Jerheme Urban177.00
Dexter McCluster410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe610690
Steve Breaston46440
Jerheme Urban26281
Jon Baldwin26280
Jackie Battle22260
Dexter McCluster0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez13/2118120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene241295.41
LaDainian Tomlinson9141.60
Bilal Powell6101.70
Mark Sanchez242.02
Jeremy Kerley122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shonn Greene33580
LaDainian Tomlinson24501
Dustin Keller45340
Josh Baker11170
Santonio Holmes24121
Patrick Turner11100
Plaxico Burress0200
Jeremy Kerley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.53
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.60