Closing spread
NYJ -10.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.072
- 38.8%Success rate40.3%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.088
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.8%
- -1.61CPOE-3.75
- 35.7%Third-down rate35.5%
- 38.2%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.06Points / drive1.44
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Palko | 16/32 | 195 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 2 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Jon Baldwin | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 13/21 | 181 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 24 | 129 | 5.4 | 1 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Josh Baker | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Patrick Turner | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.53
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60