2017 · Week 13

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

31·38

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

-1.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJets
  • +0.082EPA / play-0.073
  • 44.2%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback-0.000
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.181
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +4.58CPOE+0.98
  • 39.2%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.51
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–5 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4KC @ NYJ23–20KC
2020 · W8NYJ @ KC9–35KC
2016 · W3NYJ @ KC3–24KC
2014 · W9NYJ @ KC10–24KC
2011 · W14KC @ NYJ10–37NYJ
2008 · W8KC @ NYJ24–28NYJ
2007 · W17KC @ NYJ10–13NYJ
2005 · W1NYJ @ KC7–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NYJ
KCQ1 15:00242Touchdown0–0
KCQ1 13:51211Touchdown6–0
KCQ1 12:29122Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 12:2230Punt13–0
KCQ1 10:42136Touchdown14–0
NYJQ1 10:36975Touchdown14–7
KCQ1 6:1030Punt14–7
NYJQ1 5:48968Touchdown14–14
KCQ1 0:461157Missed field goal14–14
NYJQ2 10:23940Punt14–14
KCQ2 5:34568Field goal17–14
NYJQ2 2:491075Touchdown17–21
KCQ2 0:23325End of half17–21
NYJQ3 15:001867Field goal17–24
KCQ3 5:29179Touchdown24–24
NYJQ3 5:13431Field goal24–27
KCQ3 3:2739Punt24–27
NYJQ3 1:491058Field goal24–30
KCQ4 11:23569Touchdown31–30
NYJQ4 9:131676Touchdown31–38
KCQ4 2:15956Turnover on downs31–38
NYJQ4 0:4500End of half31–38

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/3336640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Smith17070.00
Kareem Hunt9404.40
Akeem Hunt122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill691852
Travis Kelce48942
Albert Wilson35270
Kareem Hunt35230
Akeem Hunt11200
Demarcus Robinson23170

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown26/3633110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte15583.90
Bilal Powell18482.71
Elijah McGuire5204.00
Josh McCown7192.72
Robbie Chosen177.00
ArDarius Stewart351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse9101570
Robbie Chosen8121070
Matt Forte33331
Chad Hansen23250
Austin Seferian-Jenkins2370
Bilal Powell2320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.46