Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
-1.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play-0.073
- 44.2%Success rate38.5%
- +0.170EPA / dropback-0.000
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.181
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- +4.58CPOE+0.98
- 39.2%Third-down rate36.0%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.21Points / drive1.51
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/33 | 366 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 1 | 70 | 70.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 9 | 185 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 8 | 94 | 2 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 26/36 | 331 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 18 | 48 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Elijah McGuire | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 9 | 10 | 157 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 8 | 12 | 107 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Chad Hansen | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.46