2023 · Week 4

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

23·20

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -9.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapJets
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.230
  • 43.8%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback-0.250
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.191
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +1.52CPOE-5.18
  • 44.9%Third-down rate25.5%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.01
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–5 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W8NYJ @ KC9–35KC
2017 · W13KC @ NYJ31–38NYJ
2016 · W3NYJ @ KC3–24KC
2014 · W9NYJ @ KC10–24KC
2011 · W14KC @ NYJ10–37NYJ
2008 · W8KC @ NYJ24–28NYJ
2007 · W17KC @ NYJ10–13NYJ
2005 · W1NYJ @ KC7–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NYJ
KCQ1 15:00742Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 11:3535Punt3–0
KCQ1 10:35569Touchdown10–0
NYJQ1 8:32420Punt10–0
KCQ1 6:12689Touchdown17–0
NYJQ1 3:24618Punt17–0
KCQ2 14:1133Safety17–2
NYJQ2 13:20662Field goal17–5
KCQ2 9:5010Turnover17–5
NYJQ2 9:42731Touchdown17–12
KCQ2 6:26956Field goal20–12
NYJQ2 2:15841Missed field goal20–12
KCQ2 0:2610Turnover20–12
NYJQ2 0:1837End of half20–12
NYJQ3 15:00775Touchdown20–20
KCQ3 10:403-6Punt20–20
NYJQ3 8:5434Punt20–20
KCQ3 7:21420Punt20–20
NYJQ3 5:19547Punt20–20
KCQ3 3:141375Field goal23–20
NYJQ4 10:51626Turnover23–20
KCQ4 7:241655End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes18/3020312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco201155.81
Patrick Mahomes7517.30
Skyy Moore2199.50
Clyde Edwards-Helaire3124.00
Jerick McKinnon372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce69600
Isiah Pacheco33430
Noah Gray13341
Rashee Rice35320
Kadarius Toney22220
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1260
Justin Watson1150
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1110
Jerick McKinnon0100
Skyy Moore0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson28/3924520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall6569.30
Dalvin Cook5163.20
Zach Wilson2147.00
Xavier Gipson2136.50
Michael Carter199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard33611
Garrett Wilson914600
Tyler Conklin46580
Jeremy Ruckert22260
Breece Hall34130
Michael Carter23120
Randall Cobb2480
Xavier Gipson1140
Dalvin Cook1120
C.J. Uzomah1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.20