Closing spread
KC -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.230
- 43.8%Success rate35.6%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.250
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.191
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.2%
- +1.52CPOE-5.18
- 44.9%Third-down rate25.5%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
- 1.89Points / drive1.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 18/30 | 203 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 20 | 115 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Rashee Rice | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 28/39 | 245 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 3 | 61 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 14 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.20