Closing spread
NYJ -14
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.038
- 42.2%Success rate47.0%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.107EPA / rush+0.048
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.09CPOE+3.75
- 37.7%Third-down rate40.6%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.48Points / drive1.85
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 25/36 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 11 | 15 | 1.4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/40 | 290 | 2 | 3 |
| Brad Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 3 | 67 | 22.3 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jesse Chatman | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.04