Closing spread
NYJ -14
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.038
- 42.2%Success rate47.0%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.107EPA / rush+0.048
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.09CPOE+3.75
- 37.7%Third-down rate40.6%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.48Points / drive1.85
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 8:50 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:23 | 4 | 26 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 2:29 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:17 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:04 | 4 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 11:42 | 7 | 47 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:01 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 5:43 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:34 | 4 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 1:48 | 9 | 84 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–14 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–14 |
| KC | Q3 8:29 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:00 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| KC | Q3 0:48 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:10 | 11 | 55 | Opp touchdown | 24–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:48 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 24–21 |
| KC | Q4 5:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:01 | 6 | 46 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| KC | Q4 1:00 | 7 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 24–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 25/36 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 11 | 15 | 1.4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 28/40 | 290 | 2 | 3 |
| Brad Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 3 | 67 | 22.3 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jesse Chatman | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.04