Closing spread
KC -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.026
- 40.5%Success rate42.6%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.58CPOE-1.58
- 39.3%Third-down rate40.0%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.41Points / drive1.99
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 21/28 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Simms | 3/8 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matt Simms | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 11 | 13 | 129 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 9 | 12 | 63 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/31 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.46