2014 · Week 9

Final

Jets

New York

QB Michael Vick

10·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

KC -9.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.026
  • 40.5%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.081
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.58CPOE-1.58
  • 39.3%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.99
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 6–5 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4KC @ NYJ23–20KC
2020 · W8NYJ @ KC9–35KC
2017 · W13KC @ NYJ31–38NYJ
2016 · W3NYJ @ KC3–24KC
2011 · W14KC @ NYJ10–37NYJ
2008 · W8KC @ NYJ24–28NYJ
2007 · W17KC @ NYJ10–13NYJ
2005 · W1NYJ @ KC7–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–KC
KCQ1 15:001281Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 8:3839Punt0–7
KCQ1 7:00766Touchdown0–14
NYJQ1 3:20724Punt0–14
KCQ2 14:13735Punt0–14
NYJQ2 11:061576Touchdown7–14
KCQ2 2:09429Touchdown7–21
NYJQ2 0:39312Field goal10–21
NYJQ3 15:0036Punt10–21
KCQ3 13:061675Field goal10–24
NYJQ3 5:061182Turnover on downs10–24
KCQ4 13:19618Punt10–24
NYJQ4 10:141143Turnover on downs10–24
KCQ4 6:3534Punt10–24
NYJQ4 4:56761Turnover on downs10–24
KCQ4 2:4831Punt10–24
NYJQ4 1:46951End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick21/2819610
Matt Simms3/83900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson11696.30
Chris Ivory8222.80
Bilal Powell5204.00
Mike Vick4184.50
Percy Harvin188.00
Matt Simms122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin11131290
Eric Decker912631
Chris Johnson23320
Jeremy Kerley24110
Jeff Cumberland0200
Greg Salas0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/3119920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles20783.91
De'Anthony Thomas12626.00
Knile Davis393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce45671
Dwayne Bowe610550
Anthony Fasano33241
Albert Wilson11130
Jamaal Charles24100
A.J. Jenkins13100
Junior Hemingway2290
Demetrius Harris1160
De'Anthony Thomas1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.21
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.46