2001 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

27·24

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

44

Model margin

+1.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapColts
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.005
  • 41.2%Success rate45.6%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.069
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.6%
  • 41.1%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.62
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.059

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–IND
INDQ1 15:001565Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 5:36568Touchdown7–3
INDQ1 2:3935Punt7–3
MIAQ1 0:5023Turnover7–3
INDQ1 0:06422Touchdown7–10
MIAQ2 13:30378Touchdown14–10
INDQ2 11:5610Turnover14–10
MIAQ2 11:2438Punt14–10
INDQ2 9:2735Punt14–10
MIAQ2 6:55622Punt14–10
INDQ2 4:2533Punt14–10
MIAQ2 3:28953Field goal17–10
INDQ2 0:2110End of half17–10
MIAQ3 15:0029Turnover17–10
INDQ3 14:14358Touchdown17–17
MIAQ3 12:57617Punt17–17
INDQ3 9:1830Punt17–23
INDQ3 8:12140Touchdown17–24
MIAQ3 8:06419Punt17–24
INDQ3 6:40822Punt17–24
MIAQ3 2:293-8Punt17–24
INDQ3 1:0610Turnover17–24
MIAQ3 0:57425Field goal20–24
INDQ4 13:35527Turnover20–24
MIAQ4 10:50759Touchdown27–24
INDQ4 7:44428Punt27–24
MIAQ4 5:24423Punt27–24
INDQ4 2:21814Turnover on downs27–24
MIAQ4 0:261-1End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler17/2925922
Ray Lucas0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Minor77110.11
Lamar Smith18532.90
Jay Fiedler284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Chambers371132
Oronde Gadsden610710
James McKnight46310
Dedric Ward22260
Travis Minor22180
Jed Weaver0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning20/3325332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dominic Rhodes14423.00
Kevin McDougal10181.80
Peyton Manning155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison9121743
Marcus Pollard36290
Terrence Wilkins46200
Reggie Wayne24180
Jerome Pathon22120
Ken Dilger0100
Kevin McDougal0100
Dominic Rhodes0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.14