Closing spread
IND -3
Total
44
Model margin
+1.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.005
- 41.2%Success rate45.6%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.6%
- 41.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.31Points / drive1.62
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 17/29 | 259 | 2 | 2 |
| Ray Lucas | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 7 | 71 | 10.1 | 1 |
| Lamar Smith | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 7 | 113 | 2 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 6 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/33 | 253 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevin McDougal | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 9 | 12 | 174 | 3 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin McDougal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14