2001 · Week 9

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

17·48

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+4.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapEagles
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.036
  • 42.2%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.012EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.151
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 42.5%Third-down rate31.5%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.34
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.2%
  • +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.115

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00529Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:1335Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:42545Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 9:38824Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:461196Touchdown0–14
MINQ2 14:5378Punt0–14
PHIQ2 10:5728Turnover0–14
MINQ2 10:143-2Field goal3–14
PHIQ2 9:02829Field goal3–17
MINQ2 6:103-9Turnover3–17
PHIQ2 5:10218Touchdown3–24
MINQ2 4:2810Turnover3–24
PHIQ2 4:11544Touchdown3–31
MINQ2 2:201091Touchdown10–31
PHIQ2 0:0200End of half10–31
MINQ3 15:0032Punt10–31
PHIQ3 13:55261Touchdown10–38
MINQ3 13:04944Turnover on downs10–38
PHIQ3 8:41414Punt10–38
MINQ3 7:36782Turnover10–38
PHIQ3 3:311172Field goal10–41
MINQ4 12:302-6Turnover10–41
PHIQ4 11:31426Touchdown10–48
MINQ4 9:30862Touchdown17–48
PHIQ4 5:51945End of half17–48

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper21/3528521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daunte Culpepper6213.50
Doug Chapman9192.10
Jimmy Kleinsasser4123.00
Travis Prentice242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss713951
Cris Carter57811
Doug Chapman23450
Byron Chamberlain24230
Jake Reed25190
Jimmy Kleinsasser22160
Chris Walsh1160

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/2922330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley171468.61
Correll Buckhalter11666.01
Donovan McNabb33712.31
James Thrash11414.00
Freddie Mitchell11212.00
Koy Detmer2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duce Staley69850
James Thrash56522
Freddie Mitchell33380
Todd Pinkston26200
Cecil Martin11170
Chad Lewis1370
Mike Bartrum1141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.12