Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+4.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.036
- 42.2%Success rate39.2%
- -0.012EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.151
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- 42.5%Third-down rate31.5%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.40Points / drive1.34
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.115
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/35 | 285 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 7 | 13 | 95 | 1 |
| Cris Carter | 5 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Doug Chapman | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/29 | 223 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 17 | 146 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 6 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 6 | 52 | 2 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Bartrum | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.12