Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
-0.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.017
- 42.5%Success rate43.8%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.253EPA / rush-0.121
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.80CPOE-0.81
- 38.4%Third-down rate38.3%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.65Points / drive1.86
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 24/41 | 224 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 11 | 55 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 6 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 16/28 | 138 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Huff | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.22