2016 · Week 7

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

10·21

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

39

Model margin

-0.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapEagles
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.017
  • 42.5%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.253EPA / rush-0.121
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.80CPOE-0.81
  • 38.4%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.86
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN
2010 · W16MIN @ PHI24–14MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00310Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:04615Punt0–0
PHIQ1 10:2736Turnover0–0
MINQ1 9:3231Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 8:17319Turnover0–0
MINQ1 6:491-7Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 6:441-3Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 6:1312Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 5:2810Turnover0–0
MINQ1 5:21616Punt0–0
PHIQ1 2:55942Punt0–0
MINQ2 13:581150Field goal3–6
PHIQ2 9:0100Touchdown3–8
MINQ2 8:4831Punt3–8
PHIQ2 7:123-4Punt3–8
MINQ2 5:40838Turnover3–8
PHIQ2 2:42935Field goal3–11
MINQ2 0:0700End of half3–11
MINQ3 15:0052Punt3–11
PHIQ3 11:361182Touchdown3–18
MINQ3 5:451469Turnover on downs3–18
PHIQ4 13:2133Punt3–18
PHIQ4 11:29847Field goal3–21
MINQ4 6:09617Turnover on downs3–21
PHIQ4 4:4611Turnover3–21
MINQ4 4:301281Touchdown10–21
PHIQ4 0:3400End of half10–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford24/4122411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata12554.60
Jerick McKinnon11433.90
Sam Bradford1-1-1.00
Ronnie Hillman1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cordarrelle Patterson77671
Kyle Rudolph511550
Adam Thielen25520
Matt Asiata68250
Stefon Diggs25180
Jerick McKinnon1150
Ronnie Hillman1120
Charles D. Johnson0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz16/2813812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews14564.00
Darren Sproles3268.70
Wendell Smallwood4133.30
Carson Wentz561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Huff44390
Ryan Mathews11270
Darren Sproles23230
Zach Ertz13140
Jordan Matthews34100
Nelson Agholor26100
Dorial Green-Beckham2481
Brent Celek1270
Trey Burton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.22