2019 · Week 6

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

20·38

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapVikings
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.056
  • 44.9%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.01CPOE+3.53
  • 45.1%Third-down rate44.0%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. MIN are 4-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN
2010 · W16MIN @ PHI24–14MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:001370Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 7:4338Punt0–7
MINQ1 5:30830Field goal0–10
PHIQ1 1:54935Field goal3–10
MINQ2 12:10275Touchdown3–17
PHIQ2 11:39726Turnover on downs3–23
MINQ2 9:39151Touchdown3–24
PHIQ2 9:31575Touchdown10–24
MINQ2 7:02416Punt10–24
PHIQ2 4:30519Punt10–24
MINQ2 1:5159Turnover10–24
PHIQ2 1:02931Turnover10–24
MINQ2 0:0600End of half10–24
PHIQ3 15:00675Touchdown17–24
MINQ3 12:1189Punt17–24
PHIQ3 9:03433Field goal20–24
MINQ3 6:19975Touchdown20–31
PHIQ3 1:16623Punt20–31
MINQ4 13:01985Touchdown20–38
PHIQ4 8:17645Turnover20–38
MINQ4 6:0435Punt20–38
PHIQ4 5:4210Turnover20–38
MINQ4 5:36723Turnover20–38
PHIQ4 1:48430End of half20–38

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz26/4030621
Jake Elliott0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard13493.80
Boston Scott4307.50
Carson Wentz22311.50
Miles Sanders362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Sanders33861
Alshon Jeffery1012761
Zach Ertz49540
Dallas Goedert58480
Nelson Agholor47420
Mack Hollins0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/2933341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison14634.50
Dalvin Cook16412.61
Stefon Diggs2189.00
Kirk Cousins200.00
Adam Thielen100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs7111673
Adam Thielen68571
Kyle Rudolph33360
Irv Smith22290
Bisi Johnson11160
Laquon Treadwell11150
Dalvin Cook22130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.59