Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.056
- 44.9%Success rate42.1%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.01CPOE+3.53
- 45.1%Third-down rate44.0%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 2.01Points / drive2.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. MIN are 4-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 26/40 | 306 | 2 | 1 |
| Jake Elliott | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 86 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 10 | 12 | 76 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/29 | 333 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 11 | 167 | 3 |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59