2023 · Week 2

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

28·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

49

Model margin

-2.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapEagles
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.061
  • 43.2%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.007
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.80CPOE+3.86
  • 37.5%Third-down rate47.5%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.30
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN
2010 · W16MIN @ PHI24–14MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00869Field goal0–3
MINQ1 9:48416Punt0–3
PHIQ1 8:0839Punt0–3
PHIQ1 6:09617Turnover0–3
MINQ1 2:5812Turnover0–3
PHIQ1 2:5032Missed field goal0–3
MINQ1 0:421050Touchdown7–3
PHIQ2 10:391675Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 2:44874Turnover7–10
PHIQ2 0:34537Field goal7–13
MINQ3 15:002-10Turnover7–13
PHIQ3 14:2627Touchdown7–20
MINQ3 13:533-5Punt7–20
PHIQ3 12:29369Touchdown7–27
MINQ3 10:54575Touchdown14–27
PHIQ3 9:09416Punt14–27
MINQ3 6:1936Punt14–27
PHIQ3 5:191649Punt14–27
MINQ4 11:19986Touchdown21–27
PHIQ4 7:41875Touchdown21–34
MINQ4 4:131280Touchdown28–34
PHIQ4 1:1035Punt28–34
MINQ4 0:0710End of half28–34

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins31/4436440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison8283.50
Ty Chandler100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson11131590
Jordan Addison35721
T.J. Hockenson78662
K.J. Osborn36341
Josh Oliver23130
Alexander Mattison36110
Ty Chandler2290

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts18/2319311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift281756.31
Boston Scott5408.00
Jalen Hurts12352.92
Rashaad Penny393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith451311
A.J. Brown46290
Dallas Goedert67220
D'Andre Swift3360
Rashaad Penny1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.70%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.9%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.30