Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
49
Model margin
-2.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.061
- 43.2%Success rate46.3%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.007
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.80CPOE+3.86
- 37.5%Third-down rate47.5%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.84Points / drive2.30
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 31/44 | 364 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 11 | 13 | 159 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 5 | 72 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 8 | 66 | 2 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/23 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 28 | 175 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Rashaad Penny | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 131 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.9%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.30